Issue 148 April 17th 2025

Introduction & Analysis

This collection of open-source English-language news articles published over the past week highlights significant events and issues concerning Myanmar. They present a snapshot of the country's safety and security landscape.

As with the previous week, this reporting period continued to be dominated by the March 28, 2025, earthquake and its aftermath.

The junta's continued military actions, including airstrikes and shelling despite announcing a temporary ceasefire, pose a direct threat to civilian lives and impede the delivery of humanitarian aid. The earthquake itself has created widespread unsafe living conditions due to damaged infrastructure, collapsed buildings, and a lack of adequate shelter for displaced populations. Moreover, there are reports of junta forces obstructing aid and intimidating humanitarian workers, further endangering vulnerable communities. Adding to the insecurity, GPS interference has been detected, raising concerns about the safety of aircraft involved in aid missions. Inter-ethnic tensions persist with the potential for armed conflict. Finally, spreading misinformation online is undermining safety by potentially escalating panic and disrupting aid efforts.

Census & Elections

Myanmar Junta Kicks Off Poll Countdown Amid Quake Devastation

Less than two weeks after a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake in central Myanmar that killed over 3,600 people, the junta is shifting its focus to preparing for a general election planned for December and January. The junta's Union Election Commission (UEC) has reaffirmed this plan, calling for political party registration despite the disbandment of 40 parties, including the National League for Democracy. While some parties are registered, the USDP is the only one declaring readiness, and the election plan faces condemnation as a sham by Western democracies and regime opponents amid ongoing conflict in multiple states and regions, including areas severely affected by the earthquake. The junta intends to use electronic and a hybrid voting system, and the 2008 Constitution requires only a small percentage of elected lawmakers to convene parliament due to reserved military seats.

Conflict

Who was trying to mislead IAF aircraft taking aid to Myanmar?

On March 29, 2025, an Indian Air Force (IAF) C-130J Hercules aircraft carrying aid to Myanmar after an earthquake experienced GPS spoofing while in Myanmar's airspace. This electronic interference caused "temporary navigational anomalies" and forced the pilots to switch to backup systems. Data from GPSJam.org showed significant GPS disruption over southern Myanmar, particularly around Yangon and the Irrawaddy Delta, on the same date. The concentrated and localized nature of the interference suggests a deliberate act, raising suspicions of foreign involvement, potentially from electronic warfare capabilities located on or near the Coco Islands, which are geographically close to the affected area and have long been speculated to host signals intelligence and radar facilities. The incident is seen within a broader geopolitical context of increasing GPS spoofing incidents worldwide, often linked to regions with heightened military tensions.

UN Sees ‘Significant Slowdown’ in Myanmar Fighting Since Truce

TFollowing a devastating earthquake in Myanmar that has killed over 3,600 people, the UN reports a significant slowdown in the multi-sided conflict since a temporary truce was called by both the ruling junta and its opponents to facilitate aid delivery. While the UN has noted reports of continued military actions despite the ceasefire, there is hope that the reduction in hostilities will allow for impartial aid to reach all those in need, though full access remains uncertain. The earthquake's devastation, considered the second most deadly disaster in Myanmar since 1900, has overwhelmed the health system, caused shortages of medical supplies, and created sanitation issues, compounding pre-existing vulnerabilities like widespread food insecurity.

UN Denounces Myanmar Junta Attacks Amid Earthquake Devastation

Following the March 28 earthquake in Myanmar, despite announcing a ceasefire, the Myanmar junta has continued airstrikes and shelling, particularly in devastated areas like Sagaing Region and Chin State, resulting in over 100 civilian deaths between March 28 and April 8. The United Nations has denounced these attacks as potentially violating international humanitarian law and has called on the junta to cease military operations and remove obstacles to humanitarian aid delivery. The junta's actions, including attacks on aid convoys and intimidation at checkpoints, are blocking essential assistance from reaching affected communities, forcing them to organize their own relief efforts. UN officials are urging the Security Council to demand a cessation of hostilities, an end to human rights violations, and unobstructed humanitarian access, also suggesting cooperation with the National Unity Government and other anti-regime groups to ensure aid reaches those in need.

Myanmar regime carries out more airstrikes, killing at least two

Myanmar's junta carried out airstrikes in Mandalay and Sagaing Regions on April 11, 2025, resulting in the deaths of at least two civilians, including a 13-year-old girl, and the destruction of a house and a school building. The attacks targeted areas with resistance presence, such as Madaya and Kawlin Townships, with a school in Inpinlu being hit by two bombs. These actions have been condemned by the United Nations, particularly as they occurred during a period when focus should be on providing aid following a recent massive earthquake, despite the junta's earlier declaration of a ceasefire. The airstrikes are part of an ongoing escalation of attacks by the military in resistance-held areas, even after anti-junta forces had briefly seized and then lost control of Kawlin's administrative center.

Despite Ceasefire Junta Continues Shelling in Waingmaw Township

Despite the junta's declaration of a temporary 20-day ceasefire starting on April 2, 2025, to facilitate earthquake relief efforts, they continued shelling in Waingmaw Township, Kachin State. On April 3rd, junta soldiers used artillery and drones to bomb KIA and allied resistance force positions near Lumyan Village. A local resident and a religious leader reported the continuous shelling, which was even described as more intense than before the ceasefire. Although there had been no recent fighting, the shelling originated from junta army headquarters and affiliated bases within Waingmaw Township. Both the junta and the KIA had stated they would retaliate if attacked, regardless of any ceasefires, and the KIA emphasized that ceasefires should be respected by all parties.

Myanmar’s resistance faces a moral quandary after the quake

Following a recent devastating earthquake in central Myanmar, the country's resistance movement, engaged in the Spring Revolution against military rule, faces a moral quandary regarding the prioritization of aid to survivors versus continued armed resistance. This dilemma is exacerbated by a prevalent binary perspective within the movement that often views those associated with the junta with disdain, even when they are victims of the natural disaster. While some resistance supporters and fundraisers prioritize the ultimate goal of ousting the junta, others argue that urgent humanitarian needs should take precedence, and that politicizing aid delivery risks undermining the movement's core values.

Corruption

Firm Owned by Myanmar Junta Boss’s Son Reportedly Tipped for Quake Reconstruction

Following a 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Upper Myanmar on March 28, Naypyitaw, the administrative capital, sustained significant damage to key government buildings, prompting junta boss Min Aung Hlaing to order reconstruction. Furious about the extent of the damage, particularly to the Parliament, he directed construction companies involved in the city's original construction in 2002 to undertake the rebuilding efforts. Notably, a construction company owned by Min Aung Hlaing's son, Aung Pyae Sone, will be involved in rebuilding damaged military structures. Despite the regime's economic difficulties, international donors have pledged over US$170 million in aid, with China providing a substantial amount for post-quake recovery.

Crime & Narcotics

People detained in Myanmar after release from scam compounds attempt an escape

Over 270 men and women who were rescued from forced labor in Myanmar scam compounds two months prior but remained in detention attempted a mass escape due to fears of being returned to these abusive environments. This group, mainly from Ethiopia and other African countries, was being held by the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) after a large-scale release of trafficked individuals in February. They aimed to reach Thailand and freedom but were met by armed soldiers after leaving their compound and ultimately agreed to return. The escape highlights the dire humanitarian situation, with detainees facing severe suffering and distrustful of promises of repatriation, despite efforts from non-profit organizations and some governments to bring them home.

Making money out of a disaster: fake news in Myanmar quake

In the aftermath of the deadly Myanmar earthquake, digital profiteers have exploited social media to spread fake news and misleading content for financial gain. This misinformation, including sensationalized images and fabricated stories, often repurposes old media or uses AI-generated content. Experts warn that this proliferation of false information can escalate panic, hinder aid efforts, and undermine trust in emergency services. While social media platforms state they remove harmful content, they are criticized for not taking sufficient action, and the issue is compounded by internet shutdowns in Myanmar, making it harder for people to access accurate information.

Economy

Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Warn US Tariffs Imperil Quake Recovery

Myanmar's garment manufacturers are worried that new US tariffs of 44 percent will impede the country's recovery from a recent devastating earthquake that has killed 3,645 people. The Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association (MGMA) stated that these tariffs, impacting an industry with over 500,000 employees, mostly young women, will worsen the vulnerability of businesses already struggling due to the earthquake and the ongoing civil war since the 2021 coup, which has led to international isolation and sanctions. Myanmar's exports to the US had already decreased by 23.5 percent to $656.5 million last year. The earthquake has added to the economic difficulties of a nation where half the population lives in poverty and over 3.5 million are displaced. Furthermore, cuts to humanitarian aid, linked to changes in US foreign policy, have created "critical funding shortfalls," such as the World Food Program being forced to reduce aid to 1 million people. The MGMA has urged the United States to consider a more lenient tariff rate in light of these multiple crises.

Ethnic Issues

INTER-ERO CONFLICT: KIA and TNLA trying to thrash out differences to avert head on military conflict

Recent inter-ethnic conflict in northern Shan State, primarily between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), has escalated due to territorial ownership disputes and demarcation issues following Operation 1027. Negotiations have begun between the two ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) to address these constant frictions, as announced by Lt. General Gun Maw of the Kachin Independence Council (KIC). Preliminary discussions regarding the location, time, and invited parties for future meetings have been held. This conflict has involved TNLA forces seizing KIA camps, taking down Kachin national flags, and reportedly planning to expel SSPP and KIA camps from certain townships, causing concern among local residents about potential clashes. The Möng Mit Sinlee Kachin Sub-State Advisory Group has met with local residents to explain the situation and gather their input. Analysis suggests that a lack of historical background knowledge and narrow ethno-nationalism might contribute to these conflicts, emphasizing the need for political dialogue, negotiated settlements, and considering the local population's needs in the pursuit of federalism.

Foreign Affairs

Trump’s Impact on Japan and ASEAN

During his second administration, President Trump's policies have significantly impacted Japan and ASEAN by departing from long-established norms in both domestic and foreign affairs. His questioning of alliances, demands for greater contributions, rejection of economic globalism, and embrace of protectionism through tariffs have created uncertainty in the region. These abrupt shifts in U.S. policy have raised serious concerns in East Asia. For regional supply chains, highlighting Asia's dependence on the U.S. Consequently, Japan and ASEAN countries need to strengthen their cooperation to navigate this uncertain strategic environment and maintain an open economic order, even though they remain heavily reliant on the United States. ASEAN's collective negotiation framework contrasts Japan's more independent position in facing these challenges.

General News

Quake recovery subdues water festival celebrations in Myanmar

Several Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, celebrate an annual water festival. In Myanmar, the festival is called Thingyan, but this year's celebrations are subdued due to a devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake in March that killed over 3,600 people. While the holiday usually involves raucous water fights and ceremonies to honor elders, this year Myanmar is observing a nationwide grieving period, with no government-organized festivities, although private celebrations are permitted. This contrasts with Thailand's Songkran festival, which is expected to proceed with usual revelry. Notably, this is the first Thingyan since its inclusion on the Unesco Representative List of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity. Even before the earthquake, Myanmar's celebrations had been impacted by the 2021 military coup and the 2020 pandemic. The water festival in these agrarian societies historically marks a seasonal movement of the sun and originated as a ceremony to welcome the rainy season.

Down and out: Junta offers scant help to homeless civil servants

A significant 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, particularly ravaging the junta's administrative center in Nay Pyi Taw, situated on the Sagaing Fault, leaving thousands of civil servants and their families homeless. The earthquake severely damaged or destroyed much of the civil service housing in Zabuthiri Township, and despite over 600 reported deaths in the capital, survivors, including civil servants, have complained about the slow and inadequate response from the junta. While some temporary shelters with Chinese aid logos were erected, occupants reported relying on private donors for basic needs, and many low-level employees were forced to build their own crude shelters or seek temporary lodging elsewhere. Frustration is evident among civil servants due to the lack of support, orders to return to damaged offices, and concerns about their living conditions in temporary shelters or the lack thereof. Some departments have taken initiative to help their staff by relocating them and providing basic necessities through independent fundraising, as the junta has not allocated extra budget despite receiving international aid.

Myanmar Shuts Tourist Visas Temporarily As Earthquakes Cripple Landmarks And Transport

Due to a devastating series of earthquakes in central Myanmar in late March and April 2025, including a significant 6.8 magnitude quake and a 5.5 magnitude aftershock, the government has declared a temporary freeze on all tourist visa issuances. This precautionary measure aims to protect visitors and allow emergency teams to focus on stabilizing the country’s fragile tourism sector, as the quakes caused extensive damage to key heritage sites in Bagan and Mandalay and severely impacted transportation networks, hotels, and public utilities. The visa suspension is in effect throughout April 2025, and while there is no clear date for resumption, authorities will review conditions weekly with the goal of reopening once safety and infrastructure standards are restored. The government's priority is now on immediate recovery, saving lives, and stabilizing essential services, acknowledging the significant disruption to travel and the country's tourism rebuilding ambitions.

Humanitarian

Foreign Affairs Dems press Rubio on Burma earthquake response, USAID cuts

Following a deadly 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Burma that killed over 3,000 people, House Democrats on the Foreign Affairs Committee criticized the Trump administration's response as inadequate and damaging to U.S. leadership and interests in the region. In a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, they expressed concern over the "shuttering" of USAID and "gutting" of foreign assistance programs, noting that a small assessment team was dismissed quickly while China sent significant aid. The Democrats highlighted the discrepancy between President Trump's initial promise of assistance and the perceived lack of action, questioning the absence of a disaster assistance response team, the termination of USAID workers, the impact on aid requests, the amount of pledged aid, and measures to prevent aid from reaching the Burmese military junta. They warned that this response risks damaging U.S. credibility with ASEAN and encouraging allies to align with China instead, urging the administration to rectify the situation and restore U.S. foreign assistance capabilities.

Town south of Mandalay continues to clean up after deadly Myanmar earthquake

A devastating earthquake struck Pyawbwe in the Mandalay Region of Myanmar around March 28, 2025, causing significant destruction and casualties. While the local fire department reported 242 deaths and 197 injuries, with 38 rescued, local residents claim over 400 deaths and around 1,000 injuries in urban areas alone. The earthquake heavily damaged nearly 200 buildings in densely populated wards like Myin Bet and Myo Ma, including the town hall, a KBZ Bank branch where at least 20 died, and a mosque with a death toll of 54. Cleanup efforts are ongoing and expected to take at least two more months, with over 3,000 people displaced and sheltering in religious buildings and open fields. The disaster has led to a scarcity and soaring prices of construction materials, hindering rebuilding, and has strained local hospitals, prompting calls for medical donations. Casualties in rural villages remain unclear and these areas reportedly receive scarce humanitarian aid.

How USAID cuts impact Myanmar earthquake relief

The United States is facing criticism for its response to a deadly 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar. According to CNN, the civil war-torn country is struggling to recover, and a former USAID official reported that three staffers from the agency were laid off shortly after arriving in the disaster zone. This situation has exposed a void allegedly left by the Trump administration's cuts to USAID. The article suggests that these cuts have impacted the US's ability to provide aid and support in the aftermath of the earthquake.

Military

Myanmar junta aims to resume ministry operations in Naypyitaw by end of month

The Myanmar junta aims to restore all administrative operations in Naypyitaw by the end of April 2025, one month after the earthquake that caused significant damage. Home Affairs Minister Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung announced on April 8 that efforts were underway to resume ministerial functions using temporary offices. Despite hundreds of damaged staff housing units remaining uncleared, some employees whose homes were not damaged were instructed to return to work as early as March 31, even with damage to workplaces. These efforts to resume operations come nearly two weeks after the quake.

Capitalizing on Calamity and Chaos in Myanmar

The earthquake in Central Myanmar caused significant devastation, impacting millions and resulting in thousands of deaths. While the international community responded with aid and rescue efforts, facilitated initially by the State Administration Council (SAC), deep distrust exists due to the ongoing civil war and past atrocities, leading to debates about aid dispersal and concerns that the military junta will exploit the disaster for legitimacy. Despite announcing a ceasefire, the SAC's history of broken truces and continued military actions undermine its credibility, while the junta simultaneously attempts to promote narratives of reform and planned elections. The earthquake recovery period presents challenges in navigating these competing narratives and ensuring effective humanitarian engagement amidst the ongoing conflict.

Airbus hit with complaint over ties to Chinese firm supplying Myanmar junta

A civil society group from Myanmar has filed a complaint in the Netherlands with the OECD National Contact Point against the European aviation giant Airbus. The complaint accuses Airbus of maintaining ties with the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), a Chinese defense firm that allegedly supplies weapons to the Myanmar military. These ties exist through Airbus's investment in AviChina Industry & Technology and multiple joint ventures with AVIC companies in China. The complaint urges Airbus to leverage its position as an investor and partner to push AVIC to cease doing business with the junta, particularly because AVIC-supplied aircraft are claimed to have been used in deadly airstrikes.

Natural Disaster

Seismologists share early analyses of Myanmar earthquake

The magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), on March 28 caused widespread and severe damage, resulting in over 5,000 casualties. The earthquake ruptured more than 400 kilometers of the Sagaing fault, Myanmar's main lateral plate boundary, representing one of the largest surface ruptures observed globally. The rupture exhibited a "supershear" behavior after an initial slow start. This seismic event led to increased seismic activity in Thailand and regions of China, suggesting widespread triggering by dynamic stresses, and caused damaging shaking extending over 100 kilometers, impacting areas like Mandalay, Sagaing, and Nay Pyi Taw. Notably, satellite imagery facilitated rapid post-disaster damage assessments in Mandalay, and the earthquake marked the first detection of a large-magnitude event using submarine telecommunication cable networks as seismic sensors.

Satellite Data Show Motion of Burma Earthquakes

On March 28, 2025, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake followed by a magnitude 6.7 quake struck near Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), originating on the Sagaing Fault at the interface of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. NASA researchers used radar and optical satellite data from the European Space Agency's Copernicus Sentinel-1A and Sentinel-2B/C satellites to map the ground displacement, revealing northward and southward motion with some areas experiencing over 6 meters of total offset. This data confirmed right-lateral strike-slip motion and helped to constrain models of the rupture, which spanned an estimated 550 kilometers, making it one of the longest documented strike-slip fault-induced surface ruptures. Preliminary analysis suggests the earthquake might have been a rare and fast "supershear" event, potentially contributing to the extensive damage reported as far away as Bangkok.

Putao to Khaunglanhpu Road Blocked After Heavy Rains

Heavy torrential rain since the second week of March 2025 has rendered the dirt road between Putao Town and Khaunglanhpu Town in Kachin State impassable due to landslides and damaged bridges. This blockage prevents trucks, buses, and cars from traveling between the towns, leaving passengers stranded. While motorcycles can still attempt the journey, they often require porters to carry them across damaged sections, significantly increasing travel time. As the road is the only route for food and goods to reach Khaunglanhpu Town, residents are beginning to experience shortages and rising prices after two weeks of the blockage. Additionally, since January 2025, a junta checkpoint outside Khaunglanhpu Town has been restricting entry to those without a Kachin State National Identification Card.

United Nations

UN calls on Trump to exempt poorest countries from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

The UN's trade and development arm, Unctad, has urged Donald Trump to exempt the world's poorest and smallest countries from his "reciprocal" tariffs, warning of "serious economic harm" to these nations. Unctad identified 28 countries singled out for higher tariffs despite accounting for less than 0.1% of the US trade deficit. They argue that these countries are unlikely to be a threat to the US economy due to their small size and modest exports and are also unlikely to generate significant demand for US exports even if they lower tariffs. Unctad also pointed out that imposing tariffs on key agricultural commodities from some of these nations, like vanilla from Madagascar, cocoa from Ivory Coast and Ghana, is more likely to result in higher prices for US consumers rather than boosting domestic industries. The 90-day pause on higher tariffs offers an opportunity to reassess the treatment of these vulnerable economies.