Current Events Related to Myanmar

Introduction & Analysis

This collection of open-source English-language news articles published over the past week highlights significant events and issues concerning Myanmar. They present a snapshot of the country's safety and security landscape.

Military Election and International Rejection: Myanmar's military junta completed a three-phase general election in January 2026 that has been widely condemned as a sham by ASEAN, the UN, and Western nations, with the pro-military USDP party claiming a landslide victory while opposition parties were banned and Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned.
Escalating Conscription and Financial Burdens: Residents across Shan State face dual pressures of forced military conscription (with administrators allegedly paying brokers up to 10 million kyats for substitute recruits) and mounting monthly fees for both national military service and ethnic armed group taxes, pushing communities into debt and displacement.
Intensifying Civil War and Civilian Casualties: The conflict between Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) and resistance forces, including ethnic armed organizations and People's Defense Forces, continues with heavy airstrikes, drug trade accusations against various groups, and over 3.6 million people displaced nationwide since the 2021 coup.
International Responses and Humanitarian Concerns: The international community has responded with continued sanctions, investigations into aviation fuel smuggling via "ghost ships," legal challenges to protect Myanmar refugees (including US TPS cases), and over 300 journalists imprisoned worldwide, with Myanmar ranking second only to China at 30 detained journalists.

ASEAN

ASEAN won't endorse election in military-ruled Myanmar, Malaysia says

Malaysia's foreign minister stated that ASEAN will not endorse Myanmar's recent elections under military rule, due to concerns over the lack of inclusive and free participation. The military-backed party is poised for a parliamentary majority in the first general election since the 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's government, sparking widespread opposition and civil war. ASEAN declined to send official observers as conditions for credible polls were unmet, marking the bloc's clearest refusal to recognize the results despite internal divisions on engagement.

Philippines, as new ASEAN chair, holds talks with Myanmar’s NUG and ethnic armed groups

The Philippines, as the new ASEAN chair, hosted talks in Tagaytay from January 19-20 with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), ethnic armed groups, and other opposition representatives, led by Foreign Minister Maria Theresa Parreno Lazaro. Discussions centered on implementing ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, protecting civilians from violence, rejecting the military junta’s unilateral elections, and establishing common political principles, building on prior Malaysian talks. ASEAN has barred Myanmar’s junta from high-level meetings due to non-compliance and will neither observe nor recognize the ongoing elections.

Conflict

Three civilians killed in drone strike apparently targeting voter registration workers in Launglon

On January 20, a drone strike hit a house in Launglon Township where voter registration workers were operating, killing three civilian women and injuring two others, including a child. The attack appears to have been intended to target the voter registration team but struck a residential area instead, with a human rights activist suggesting the strike may have been carried out by a resistance group. No group has claimed responsibility for the drone strike, and local sources indicate that resistance forces remain active in the area ahead of the junta's scheduled final round of voting on January 25.

Loyalties Shift in Myawaddy as Myanmar Junta Calls Armed Groups to Heel

The Myanmar junta warned allied Karen groups DKBA and KNU/KNLA-PC to protect Infantry Battalion 275 in Myawaddy from attacks, threatening to bomb the town if it happens again, and demanded detailed troop, personnel, and weapons information by January 24. This stems from tensions with the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) led by Saw Chit Thu, who rebranded part of his forces as the Karen National Army (KNA) after the junta cracked down on his scam operations, prompting orders for KNA members to leave Myawaddy by January 26. The groups are now tasked with securing junta bases amid shifting loyalties, following a prior resistance seizure of the battalion in April 2024 that the regime recaptured with BGF help.

Junta airstrikes intensify as push to retake Falam stalls

Myanmar’s military has intensified airstrikes and reinforced ground troops in northern Chin State’s Falam Township after a three-month offensive to retake the town stalled, with junta forces now about 13 miles away amid ongoing clashes. Chin resistance forces, including the Chin National Defence Force and Chin Brotherhood, have held their positions despite nearly daily aerial attacks totaling 1,500-1,600 strikes, while noting that many junta troops are inexperienced conscripts. The fighting has destroyed two villages, displaced thousands, and contributed to over 104,800 displacements in Chin State since the 2021 coup, as resistance controls most of the state's townships except Hakha and Tedim.

Myanmar’s war headed for a tipping point in 2026

Myanmar's civil war is approaching a critical juncture in 2026, with the military (Tatmadaw) having regained battlefield initiative through conscription and improved combined-arms tactics but still facing daunting challenges from both ethnic armed organizations and People's Defense Forces across the country. The military confronts two major challenges: a protracted counterinsurgency campaign in the Bamar heartland and large-scale offensives against well-organized ethnic forces, particularly the 40,000-strong Arakan Army in Rakhine State. Meanwhile, the resistance formed the Spring Revolution Alliance in late 2025 to improve coordination and must adopt advanced tactics, such as fiber-optic FPV drone technology, and shift toward semi-conventional mobile warfare to avoid gradual marginalization and a stalemate.

Guevara in Myanmar: The Enduring Logic of Guerrilla Warfare

This article examines Che Guevara's theory of guerrilla warfare through the lens of Myanmar's ongoing civil war, arguing that his core principles remain applicable to modern insurgencies. Despite criticisms about Guevara's originality and limited success outside Cuba, the author demonstrates how Myanmar's People's Defense Forces effectively apply three key elements from his theory: popular support, rural power bases, and unifying ideology (democracy and ethnic self-determination). The PDF's success in offsetting the military junta's conventional advantages validates Guevara's adaptable framework for 21st-century irregular warfare, even though his specific "foco" theory has generally failed when replicated elsewhere.

Conscription

Money and Manpower: Southern Shan Residents Crushed by Dual Conscription Demands

Residents in Southern Shan State's Pang Laung Township face severe financial strain from monthly payments of at least 50,000 kyats, covering national military service fees, Pa-O National Organization (PNO) expenses, taxes, and vehicle levies, forcing many to sell possessions despite exhaustion. Recruitment pressures have intensified, with the PNO urging Pa-O civilians to join its militia to avoid national conscription under the reactivated People's Military Service Law, which has drafted an estimated 100,000 people since February 2024. Communities warn that these dual demands for money and manpower are pushing residents beyond their limits, fueling resentment amid ongoing conflict.

Administrators Accused of Paying Brokers for Substitute Conscripts as Youth Flee Shan State

Local administrators in several Shan State townships are allegedly collaborating with brokers to secure substitute military recruits, charging residents up to 10-11 million kyats while actual broker fees are only 5-6 million kyats. Ward and village administrators are reportedly extracting personal profit by inflating these collections, with some areas requiring households to contribute 50,000 kyats each to fund substitute conscripts. The overlapping military service fees and taxes are pushing families into debt and forcing them to sell assets, as young people continue to flee or hide to avoid conscription under Myanmar's reactivated mandatory military service law.

Crime & Narcotics

Anti-junta forces claim destruction of opium fields on Rakhine-Magway border

Anti-junta forces in Myanmar's Magway Region claim to have destroyed approximately 30 acres of opium fields in resistance-controlled areas of Ngape Township. The fighters, allied with the Arakan Army, conducted drug awareness education and mobilized local farmers to cultivate alternative crops instead of opium. Control of the strategic road between Ann and Padan is militarily significant due to its proximity to a defense factory, and ongoing clashes continue around the nearby Nat Yay Kan base as both sides vie for territorial control.

KNU rejects junta accusations of drug trafficking profiteering

The Karen National Union (KNU) has firmly rejected accusations from the Myanmar junta that it relies on drug production and trafficking in its controlled areas as a primary income source, following the junta's raid on drug labs in northern Shan State and claims of KNU involvement in smuggling to Thailand. KNU spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee emphasized the group's revolutionary principles, cited evidence like publicly burning seized methamphetamine pills in Hpa-An District, and affirmed no ties to illegal activities, while expressing willingness to cooperate internationally against drugs and border scams. The KNU enforces anti-drug measures through its criminal code, awareness campaigns, and agreements like the Karen Unity and Peace Committee, though some observers note ongoing trafficking by other Karen groups and question enforcement effectiveness.

DISCREDITING ADVERSARIES: The Junta’s Strategy Against EAOs in Northern Shan State’s Drug Trade

The Myanmar military junta has seized several drug production facilities in Hsipaw and Mongyai townships in Northern Shan State, claiming they are operated by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) like the SSPP/SSA, though no arrests have been made. The accused EAOs, including the Arakan Army, strongly deny involvement and assert that the junta is using these allegations as a strategy to discredit them internationally and undermine their legitimacy. The junta's own credibility on drug enforcement remains questionable, given its decades-long history of complicity in drug trafficking through militias and border guard forces that have enriched military commanders.

Elections

Two more townships added to list where Myanmar junta’s elections cannot be held

The Myanmar junta's Union Election Commission announced on January 21 that elections will not be held in Mansi and Momauk townships in Kachin State, which are controlled by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), bringing the total number of townships with cancelled elections to 67 out of 330 nationwide. The commission also disqualified U Kwan San, a Union Solidarity and Development Party candidate who had been declared the uncontested winner for the Pyithu Hluttaw seat in Mansi. Revolutionary forces and international organizations have rejected the junta's election as neither free nor fair, with Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan stating on January 20 that ASEAN will not endorse the election results.

Japan's top diplomat says Myanmar election may deepen division

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi expressed serious concerns on Friday that Myanmar's ongoing junta-run general election, which excluded pro-democracy groups, could deepen divisions among the people and hinder peaceful resolutions. The pro-military camp has already claimed a majority after the second round of voting in the three-phase election, which began on December 28, with the final phase scheduled for Sunday. Motegi regretted the lack of progress toward political goals, including releasing detainees like Aung San Suu Kyi and fostering sincere dialogue, noting this is Myanmar's first election since the 2021 military coup that sparked civil war.

Myanmar’s PPP leader placed under restricted movement after 24-hour interrogation

Daw Thet Thet Khine, Chairperson of Myanmar's People’s Pioneer Party (PPP), was placed under strict restricted movement at her home on January 13, 2026, after a 24-hour interrogation by the Military Commission for secretly meeting foreign diplomats on December 18, 2025, in violation of Union Election Commission (UEC) rules. The restrictions prohibit media interviews, social media posts, and unapproved activities, stemming from accusations involving an unnamed embassy, possibly British, without prior UEC permission. This follows her October 2025 disqualification from candidacy due to outstanding bank debts, amid junta enforcement of constitutional and election laws against foreign influence on political parties.

Ethnic Issues

MNDAA Imposes ID and Vehicle License Requirements in Northern Shan State

The MNDAA (Kokang Army) has implemented strict identification and vehicle licensing requirements along the Hsenwi-Kunlong-Chinshwehaw highway in Northern Shan State, requiring travelers to possess MNDAA-issued ID cards and Special Region (1) vehicle licenses, with violations resulting in being turned back at checkpoints. These new regulations impose significant financial burdens on drivers, with combined licensing costs ranging from 1,200 to 1,500 Chinese yuan, and have introduced restrictions on passenger capacity and cargo that drivers report make trips financially unsustainable. The overlapping checkpoint systems controlled by different armed groups-including the MNDAA, UWSA, and TNLA-create a complex and risky situation for civilians, who fear that documents recognized by one group may be deemed "illegal" by military authorities elsewhere, effectively trapping residents between rival control zones.

UWSA Recruitment Orders Drive Displacement in Northern Shan

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) has demanded that villages in Mong Ket, northern Shan State, provide 100 young men for military training, sparking widespread panic and displacement among residents. The recruitment order has led to tragic consequences, including the January 20 suicide of a 40-year-old man who feared conscription, while most young men have fled or gone into hiding to avoid being forced into military service. The area now consists primarily of elderly residents, as this is not the first instance of coercive recruitment since the UWSA expanded its administrative presence in the region in early 2024.

Foreign Affairs

With TPS deadline approaching, immigrants from Myanmar turn to courts and Congress as last hope

Nearly 4,000 Myanmar immigrants in the U.S. are facing termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) on January 26, 2026, which would strip them of work authorization and deportation protections. A federal class-action lawsuit filed in December and bipartisan congressional legislation introduced in January both seek to prevent the termination, with advocates arguing that conditions in Myanmar remain unsafe due to ongoing civil war and military repression. Myanmar TPS holders fear detention, persecution, forced conscription, and violence if deported, with the immediate outcome dependent on rapid court intervention or congressional action before the deadline.

US judge extends deportation protections for migrants from Myanmar

A U.S. federal judge in Chicago ordered the Trump administration to delay terminating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for about 4,000 Myanmar nationals, blocking deportations amid ongoing political turmoil and civil war in the country following the 2021 military coup. Judge Matthew Kennelly ruled that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's decision lacked a genuine basis, suggesting it was driven by broader immigration curtailment goals rather than improved conditions in Myanmar, which international reports describe as worsening with human rights abuses and infrastructure collapse. The order postpones the TPS end date, originally set for Monday, and schedules a hearing for February 6.

Thailand reopens border ferry docks after month-long closure

Thai authorities have reopened ferry docks along the Thaungyin (Moei) River border with Myanmar after a month-long closure due to armed clashes in southern Myawaddy Township, Karen State, including the dock linking Minletpan Village to Mae Ko Ken Village. The closure began on December 1 following junta advances and artillery shells landing in Thailand, injuring locals and raising concerns over scam workers fleeing into Thai territory, though strict security checks remain in place. Despite normal dock operations for about a week, recent artillery shelling and heavy fighting continue in nearby Hteemeiwahkhee Village, with displaced residents reporting frequent gunfire across the river.

Signs of US shift on Myanmar stoke battle for legitimacy

Myanmar's military regime is promoting a narrative that the U.S. is shifting toward engagement with them after years of isolation, citing decisions like ending temporary protected status for Myanmar citizens and appointing a new U.S. diplomat. While analysts dismiss a complete policy reversal, they see signs of a more pragmatic U.S. engagement that combines pressure and dialogue, driven by concerns about scam centers, China's influence, and transnational crime. The opposition National Unity Government still has reasons for hope, including bipartisan congressional support for $120 million in aid and strong critical statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Governance & Rule of Law

Over 300 journalists, including 30 in Myanmar, behind bars near end of 2025: watchdog

As of December 2025, 330 journalists were imprisoned worldwide for their work, the fifth consecutive year exceeding 300, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. China led with 50 imprisoned journalists, followed by Myanmar with 30 and Israel with 29 (mostly Palestinian journalists), while Russia, Belarus, and Azerbaijan also ranked high. Nearly half of those detained lacked convictions, and about a third faced mistreatment, including torture or beatings.

Mass jailbreak in Karenni State sends POWs fleeing into Thailand

On January 18, 2026, over 80 prisoners, mostly prisoners of war held by the Karenni State Interim Executive Council (IEC) in Mese Township near the Thai border, escaped from a resistance-run jail with help from former inmates acting as wardens, taking nine small firearms. IEC forces responded with shootouts, recapturing some escapees while at least 30 fled into Thailand's Mae Hong Son Province, prompting heightened border patrols; only four were held for non-war crimes. The incident has raised local concerns about security and governance amid ongoing resistance control, following a smaller jailbreak in October 2025, with the IEC investigating and assuring the public that the risks are contained.

IPCM calls for journalists’ safe access to information and protection

The Independent Press Council Myanmar (IPCM) held its second general assembly on January 17-18, 2026, issuing five demands, including journalists' safety, press freedom, release of 27 detained media workers, an end to their targeted arrests, and international support for independent media. IPCM criticizes the junta for suppressing press freedom and urges resistance leaders in controlled areas to improve conditions through dialogue, emphasizing that press freedom is essential for public access to truth in conflict zones. The assembly elected a 14-member executive committee, reviewed activities from 2024-2025, discussed ethnic media and workplace harassment policies, and affirmed IPCM's role since its 2023 founding in promoting media sustainability.

Politics

Who Is the Junta Boss Looming Over Myanmar’s Election?

Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's junta chief and military leader since 2011, seized power in a 2021 coup by deposing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, claiming voter fraud, which sparked a civil war with up to 90,000 deaths. Born in Dawei, he rose through the ranks by combating ethnic rebels and modernizing the army with arms from China, Russia, and Israel, though he faces international sanctions for the 2017 Rohingya crackdown. Now 69 and nearing retirement age, he oversees a junta ally's expected landslide in the ongoing election, positioning himself as the de facto ruler amid widespread skepticism about its legitimacy.

Sanctions

Myanmar uses 'ghost ships' to import aviation fuel for deadly air attacks, Amnesty says

Military-ruled Myanmar is using "ghost ships" with disabled tracking systems and other evasive tactics to import aviation fuel for air attacks in its civil war, according to an Amnesty International investigation. The country imported over 109,000 tonnes of aviation fuel in 2025-a 69% increase from the previous year and the highest since the 2021 coup, despite international sanctions. These sanction-evasion methods mirror tactics used by Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and the fuel enables airstrikes that have contributed to over 7,700 civilian deaths since the military takeover.

Myanmar Junta Crony’s UK Trip Sparks Calls for Renewed Sanctions

VVideos and photos of Myanmar junta-linked tycoon Aung Ko Win traveling by private helicopter and playing golf in the UK have sparked widespread outrage and calls for renewed sanctions. Aung Ko Win, head of the sprawling KBZ conglomerate and a longtime military associate, was previously sanctioned by the UK and EU but was removed from the list in 2012 during Myanmar's reform period. Critics argue it is deeply offensive that UK authorities allowed entry to someone accused of funding atrocities and whose company's banking system was used to track and arrest resistance members after the 2021 coup.

United Nations

UN expert urges world to reject Myanmar 'sham' election

The UN special rapporteur on Myanmar, Tom Andrews, urged the world to reject the outcome of the junta-orchestrated "sham" elections held in three stages, which concluded on January 11, 2026, as they were rigged through bans on opposition parties, jailing of figures like Aung San Suu Kyi, media suppression, and voter intimidation amid ongoing civil war. He described the polls as a ploy to legitimize military rule via proxies, with reports of officials forcing participation even as airstrikes targeted villages, warning that international acceptance would endorse fraud and hinder crisis resolution. Andrews called for halting arms, fuel, and funds to the military, praising Myanmar's people for resisting tyranny and deserving a future shaped by their will, not manipulation.