Current Events Related to Myanmar

Introduction & Analysis

The following collection of open-source English-language news articles published during the past week covers significant events and issues related to Myanmar.

ASEAN

ASEAN Says Still Needs Details on China’s Offer to Help Combat Scams in SE Asia

Beijing has offered closer security cooperation with Southeast Asian countries to combat scam syndicates operated by Chinese nationals in the region.

ASEAN Appoints New Envoy for Myanmar

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has appointed Othman Hashim, a former secretary-general of Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry, as its new special envoy to Myanmar. Hashim's task is to make progress on a peace plan for the country. This appointment occurred during an ASEAN meeting in Malaysia. The envoy's mission will focus on urging Myanmar to implement a Five-Point Consensus that was agreed upon in April 2021, which calls for an immediate end to violence. The junta has failed to honor the consensus, and ASEAN has been criticized for not pushing it hard enough. Malaysia is currently the bloc’s rotating chair. ASEAN foreign ministers stressed the urgency of restoring peace in Myanmar and urged the military junta to prioritize dialogue.

ASEAN tells Myanmar junta to prioritise ceasefire over elections

ASEAN foreign ministers have urged Myanmar's junta to prioritize a ceasefire over holding elections. The junta, which seized power in February 2021, has delayed elections while facing widespread opposition. ASEAN has been leading diplomatic efforts to end the conflict but has struggled to implement a peace plan agreed in April 2021. The junta was represented at the meeting by a senior civil servant after junta members were barred from ASEAN meetings. Critics say that any elections held by the junta would be neither free nor fair. Additionally, some foreign ministers called for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained since the coup. The conflict in Myanmar has led to over 3.3 million displaced people.

Conflict

MNDAA Signs Ceasefire With Myanmar Junta After Chinese Pressure

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has signed a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar junta after months of pressure from China. The ceasefire was agreed to during the seventh round of China-brokered peace talks in Kunming, Yunnan Province. China has stated that de-escalating tensions in northern Myanmar is in the best interest of all parties and will ensure stability and development of the China-Myanmar border area. China pressured the MNDAA by closing borders and cutting supplies and by pressuring the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to stop supplying MNDAA-controlled areas. The MNDAA, along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA), had launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State in October 2023, seizing several towns and major trade routes with China. The alliance had liberated most of Northern Shan State, including the capital Lashio, before agreeing to the ceasefire. After the ceasefire agreement was signed, the UWSA reopened its border gates to MNDAA-controlled Kokang. Further details of the ceasefire were not disclosed, and official statements on the truce have yet to be issued by the Myanmar regime and MNDAA.

Four Mon Armed Groups Announce Military Offensive Under “Ramanya Joint Forces”

Four Mon armed groups, the Mon State Revolutionary Force (MSRF), Mon State Defense Force (MSDF), New Mon State Party (MNLA-AD), and Mon Liberation Army (MLA), have formed the "Ramanya Joint Forces" to coordinate military operations against Myanmar's junta. The alliance was officially formed on January 17, 2025, after a meeting in a liberated area. The goal of the alliance is to create a unified Mon armed force that all Mon revolutionary groups can join in the future. Future operations will be conducted collectively under a unified command, with the aim of intensifying military actions in Mon regions. The groups initially agreed to form a unified force on December 19, 2024. Military plans have already been drafted to carry out operations across various Mon regions.

Ceasefire reached between junta forces and rebels with help from..., has the civil war come to an end?

A ceasefire agreement was signed between Myanmar's military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), one of the country's rebel groups, following discussions in Kunming, China. The agreement, mediated by China, aims to halt fighting near the China-Myanmar border. The MNDAA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which launched an offensive against the military junta in late October 2023, capturing significant areas near the Chinese border. China has expressed a vested interest in stabilizing the situation in northern Myanmar due to concerns that the chaos along its 2,000-kilometer-long border with Myanmar could threaten investments and trade. This agreement comes after a previous ceasefire agreement in January 2024, which collapsed after a few months. The MNDAA, composed primarily of ethnic Chinese individuals, has gained control of key areas near the Chinese border. Despite the agreement, it does not guarantee peace across all of Myanmar.

KIA Hunting Down Retreating Myanmar Junta Troops

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and its allies are actively attacking retreating Myanmar junta troops in Mansi Township, Kachin State, after seizing the township on January 8. The KIA, along with the All Burma Students Democratic Front and other groups, have attacked hundreds of troops from Light Infantry Battalions 319 and 601 and Artillery Battalion 352, inflicting heavy casualties. The KIA and its allies have seized over 300 junta outposts and bases and have occupied around 15 towns and the former Kachin State Special Region 1. The KIA also reports that they have detained numerous soldiers and seized large amounts of arms and ammunition. Junta forces are now limited to Military Operations Command 21 and Infantry Battalion 47 in Bhamo and are being encircled by anti-regime forces.

Myanmar Junta Airstrike Kills 28 Detained Wives, Children of Regime Troops: AA

On Saturday, a Myanmar military fighter jet bombed detention centers holding family members of regime troops captured by the Arakan Army (AA), killing 28 women and children. The AA reported that the airstrikes, which took place near Yann Chaung village in Mrauk-U Township, Rakhine State, consisted of three separate attacks and killed 19 women and nine children aged between two and 16, while also injuring 25 others, including 11 children. The AA condemned the bombing as a war crime and stated that the regime conducts daily arbitrary attacks on civilian targets. The AA is part of the ethnic Brotherhood Alliance, which has seized much of northern Shan State and expanded operations into Rakhine State. This is not the first time that Myanmar junta warplanes have killed their own detained troops. In September, junta jet fighters bombed a temporary AA detention center, killing 50 people, including regime personnel.

Myanmar Junta Too Weak to Fight Back

The Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) is a coalition of armed groups formed after the 2021 coup in Myanmar, as part of a broader resistance movement against the regime. The KNDF believes that the current junta is too weak to fight back and that 2025 will be a key year in the fight for freedom. KNDF chairman Khun Bedu states that the junta's calls for peace talks and elections are insincere and aimed at maintaining power, while the KNDF aims to establish a democratic system in Karenni State with freedom for everyone. He encourages other regions to do the same and compete to deliver freedom and equality, while also stressing that the country must stand united to achieve nationwide freedom. The KNDF is focused on making military gains in 2025 and will make strategic decisions about where to attack, while also trying to establish socio-economic stability. Despite the junta's increased attacks on civilians, the KNDF believes it is close to achieving its goals.

Kokang army to withdraw from Lashio under Chinese-brokered ceasefire with Myanmar junta

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as the Kokang army, has agreed to a ceasefire with the Myanmar military junta, mediated by Chinese officials. As part of the agreement, by June, the MNDAA will withdraw from Lashio, the location of the Myanmar military's northeastern regional headquarters. This agreement follows months of pressure from Chinese authorities, who closed border crossings into MNDAA-held territory and detained the group's leader, Peng Daxun. The ceasefire has led to the reopening of some border crossings, including the one in Chin Shwe Haw and the Namtit Bridge checkpoint. The MNDAA is primarily composed of Kokang people, a Mandarin-speaking ethnic group from the northern Shan State bordering China's Yunnan Province.

Myanmar junta’s grip weakening in Chin State

The Myanmar military regime has lost control of half of the ten townships in Chin State, located in the country's northwest. The Chin Brotherhood alliance has taken control of the towns of Mindat, Kanpetlet, and Matupi. The Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ally of the Chin Brotherhood, controls Paletwa Township. Additionally, the Chinland Council, led by the Chin National Front/Chin National Army, controls Tonzang Township in the northern part of the state. These groups have grown from bands armed with hunting rifles soon after the coup and now dominate most rural areas of Chin State.

The young women putting PDF recruits through their paces

The Mandalay People’s Defence Force (MDY-PDF) is an armed resistance group in Myanmar that is actively fighting against the military junta. Female instructors, who are around 20 years old, are playing a crucial role in training new recruits. These young women lead the recruits in drills, including chants like, "More sweat in training means less blood on the battlefield!". Women were very active in protests when the military first seized power nearly four years ago, and now play a vital, if less visible, role in the armed struggle. The MDY-PDF is described as a formidable fighting force.

Myanmar airstrike on detention camp kills dozens, armed opposition group says

An airstrike by the Myanmar junta in Rakhine state killed 28 people and wounded 25 at a temporary detention area. The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic minority armed group, stated that those killed were family members of junta soldiers, including nine children. The AA had captured these individuals during the fighting and was planning to release them when the bombing occurred. The AA posted photos of the aftermath showing bodies covered in sheets on the ground. The military has been struggling to fight opposition groups on multiple fronts and has been regularly accused of using air and artillery strikes to hit civilian communities. The conflict in Myanmar has displaced over 3.5 million people, and the UN has warned that Rakhine is heading towards famine due to the disruption of commerce and agricultural production.

Conscription

Street Kids ‘Targeted’ in Myanmar Junta’s Conscription Drive

In Mandalay, Myanmar, the military regime is reportedly targeting homeless people for conscription, leading to a sharp decline in the city's homeless population. These individuals are allegedly being forcibly recruited to replace those from wealthy families who bribe officials to avoid service. The military conscription law mandates two years of service for all men aged 18 to 35, but the regime is exceeding the announced recruitment numbers by seizing individuals from the streets and homes. Some homeless people are also being used as stooges by junta supporters for intimidation and extortion. Prior to the coup, charities provided education to street children, but many of these charity workers have been arrested or have fled since the coup. The junta claims to have a plan to protect street children, but an activist in Chanmyathzi Township says that homeless people are being detained to make money and replace others in military service.

Crime & Narcotics

Myanmar Junta Blames Thailand, EAOs as China Urges Scam Crackdown

Amidst Chinese pressure to address border scam operations, the Myanmar junta has deflected blame to Thailand and ethnic armed groups (EAOs). The junta claims that the scam centers receive electricity, internet, weapons, and construction materials from a neighboring country, widely understood to be Thailand. While the regime has arrested over 55,000 foreigners for online fraud, mostly Chinese nationals, they acknowledge a lack of control in areas where scams operate and accuse EAOs, including some signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), of involvement. The civilian National Unity Government (NUG), along with the KNU and other pro-democracy forces, have stated that the junta-aligned Border Guard Force (BGF) and other groups provide security for these scam operations. They also pledged to work with neighboring countries to combat transnational crime. Notably, the junta has not mentioned Saw Chit Thu, the head of the Karen State Border Guard Force (BGF), who is known for overseeing gambling and online scam operations and is under sanctions from the UK, US, and EU. Myawaddy is a known hub for these scam centers, with Shwe Kokko and KK Park being particularly notorious. The scam operations have grown since the 2021 coup, with many relocating to Myawaddy after a crackdown on the China border.

Junta Illegally Importing Vehicles Through Muse Border Crossing

Junta associates and junta local district administrators are openly importing unregistered vehicles from China through the Sin Phyu border trading post in Muse Town in northern Shan State. SHAN has learned that Aung Zaw Moe, the Muse District Administrator, who is based in Muse Town, has been accepting bribes to permit the import of these […]

The post Junta Illegally Importing Vehicles Through Muse Border Crossing appeared first on Shan Herald Agency for News.

Economy

Myanmar Junta Cracks Down on Money Changers as Dollar Soars

The Myanmar military regime has intensified its crackdown on unlicensed money changers due to the soaring price of the U.S. dollar, which has been driven by increased demand for foreign technology, such as solar panels, amid chronic electricity shortages. Many money changers have gone into hiding, and some have been arrested and prosecuted for illegal currency exchange. The junta is also targeting online currency exchange, including Facebook groups and pages. The unofficial exchange rate for the dollar has risen sharply from around 4,580 kyats to as high as 4,820 kyats, while the official rate remains at 2,000 kyats. This crackdown has caused instability in the gold market as well, with gold traders becoming nervous, especially given that the regime has previously arrested gold merchants. The junta has also been monitoring the informal remittance system, hundi, used by migrant workers. The increased demand for solar panels is partly due to the unreliable electricity supply in Yangon, and imports of these products are being driven by business people and individuals including the son of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.

Foreign Affairs

China and the Wars in Myanmar

China has become the dominant outside power in Myanmar, primarily to secure its China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). China has been able to halt fighting in northern Shan State by mediating a truce between the Myanmar junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Palaung Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). While China has been successful in negotiating ceasefires, its influence is not total, as some groups, such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), act independently. China’s objectives are to protect the CMEC and maintain a weak Myanmar, which allows China to exert influence through trade and support for ethnic armies. Other external actors, like Western nations, ASEAN, and Japan, have not been able to influence the conflicts in Myanmar, and the internal conflict is likely to continue. The current situation is a stalemate with the Myanmar junta unlikely to defeat the resistance forces, but also the resistance unlikely to unseat the junta. Ultimately, China's next move will be the determining factor.

General News

Myanmar military is still afraid of Aung San Su Kyi

According to the Ayeyarwaddy Times, the Myanmar military has imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi for a total of 19 years since 1989, and this is her fourth time being detained. Mark Farmaner, director of Burma Campaign UK, stated that the military's repeated imprisonment of Aung San Suu Kyi demonstrates their ongoing fear of her, even after decades. The Ayeyarwaddy Times also notes additional recent news stories including one about Aung San Suu Kyi's 19 year imprisonment by the military and the fact that Burma Campaign UK welcomes the ICC indictment of Min Aung Hlaing.

Government Media Sources

Notice: Combatting Online Gambling in Border Areas

The Myanmar government is actively combatting online gambling and scam operations, particularly in border areas like Myawady-Shwe Kokko and KK Park in Kayin State. These areas, initially intended for regional development, have become hubs for illegal activities due to the presence of armed organizations and lack of stability. Foreign nationals, primarily from neighboring countries, are involved in these operations, using infrastructure not provided by Myanmar. These criminals operate online gambling and scam businesses, often forcing victims into these schemes. The Myanmar government has been investigating and transferring thousands of foreign nationals involved in these activities to their respective countries. Additionally, the government is working with international organizations to combat these issues and urging local citizens to report suspicious activities.

People’s Military Service Training 9 opened nationwide

The People's Military Service Training 9 has commenced nationwide, with eligible citizens arriving at regional military headquarters training depots to prepare for national defense and security. Opening ceremonies for the course were held at various training schools, attended by officials who offered support and motivation to the trainees. The People's Military Service Law, enacted in February 2024, aims to educate citizens in military knowledge to safeguard the nation's defense, unity, and sovereignty. The inaugural course began in April 2024 and produced disciplined trainees now serving in battalions and units, contributing to national defense and security.

Humanitarian

Myanmar Migrant Workers Seek Help Over Wage Theft and Threats

Seventy-two Myanmar workers at a chicken processing plant in Thailand's Suphan Buri Province have filed a complaint against their employer for threatening them and refusing to pay their wages. The workers report that they have only received partial wages for October and none for November and December, with each worker owed between 25,000 and 28,000 baht, totaling approximately 1.8 million baht. When the workers protested, their employer threatened them with deportation. The employer also reportedly said that only workers who continue to work will be allowed to stay in factory housing, and that he will report those who do not to the police and get them deported. The workers sought help from the labor charity Aid Alliance Committee (AAC), which helped them file a complaint with the Thai Labor Protection Office. Activists assisting Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand are receiving daily complaints about workers being forced to do different jobs than specified in their contracts, having their salaries cut, or being fired at random. Additionally, 99 migrant workers who arrived earlier in the month in Sa Kaeo Province for a two-year contract at a chicken processing plant were terminated just days into their jobs, and 25 others who arrived in Prachin Buri were sent to a different factory than the one in their contracts.

National Unity Government

NUG Foreign Minister Discusses Gains, Challenges and International Hurdles

In an interview, National Unity Government (NUG) Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung discussed the NUG's achievements, challenges, and international relations. In 2024, the NUG saw military gains with the expansion of territories controlled by People’s Defense Force groups. NUG ministers also made successful visits to controlled areas and met with local communities. Additionally, the NUG has been organizing taxation and increasing revenue collection from natural resources in controlled areas. On the international front, the NUG has collaborated with global actors to hold the military junta accountable for crimes against humanity, and the ICC prosecutor applied for an arrest warrant against junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. Despite these accomplishments, the NUG faces challenges, including criticisms of its leadership and ability to collaborate with ethnic groups, and is planning reforms to address these issues. The NUG is also working to counter the junta's planned 2025 elections, which it sees as a desperate attempt to regain legitimacy. Some neighboring countries support the junta's elections. The NUG believes that the Myanmar people must rely on themselves and emphasizes a commitment to a democratic and inclusive Myanmar.

FEDERAL LAW ACADEMY: Will a standard federal constitution pave way for ethnic-democratic unity?

The Federal Law Academy, based in Mai Ja Yang, Kachin State, has made public a standard federal constitution consisting of 15 chapters and 168 pages. This constitution, which aims to establish a secular state, is the result of combining drafts from the National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB), the Federal Constitution Drafting and Coordinating Committee (FCDCC), the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), and the People’s Representatives Committee for Federalism (PRCF). The constitution proposes a “Federal Union Republic of Myanmar” with a multi-party democracy system based on the rule of law. According to U Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the National Unity Government (NUG), this constitution will help the NUG to move forward in its political roadmap. The constitution is meant to provide legitimacy in politics, and it is intended that ethnic and Bamar revolutionary groups consider it for use as a transitional federal constitution. However, some ethnic armed organizations (EROs) seek territorial expansion and greater administrative control, which will need to be resolved according to constitutional norms.

Politics

Myanmar Junta Boss Vows to Prioritize Stability for Elections

Myanmar's junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, has pledged to prioritize stability and the rule of law to create conditions for elections, though no dates have been announced. He acknowledged a population decline to just over 51 million, attributing it to low birthrates, emigration, and deaths. This decline, according to Min Aung Hlaing, is causing labor shortages that could impact the planned elections. The junta's control is weakening, with revolutionary groups seizing territory, and fighting has spread to the Ayeyarwady Region. A preliminary census by the junta admitted a full headcount in only 145 of 330 townships. The Conscription Law is a driver for mass emigration, and the population has decreased by nearly 4 million in just over two years. The junta is also implementing solar energy projects, but the cost is beyond most people’s reach.

Sanctions

Tech companies accused of ties to junta – Yahoo!News

Burma Campaign UK reports that tech companies such as Apple, Google, LinkedIn, and YouTube have been warned that they are hosting apps and channels run by MyTel, a blacklisted Myanmar mobile phone network operator. MyTel is jointly owned by the Myanmar military and a Vietnamese telecommunications provider. Burma Campaign UK and the International Campaign for Rohingya have accused MyTel of funding the Myanmar military through revenue and land lease deals for infrastructure. The director of Burma Campaign UK, Mark Farmaner, stated that American tech firms are supporting a military-owned company that has been sanctioned by the American government for enabling the Burmese military to commit human rights violations.