Issue 120 October 3rd 2024

Introduction & Analysis

The following collection of open-source English-language news articles published during the past week covers significant events and issues related to Myanmar.

Census & Elections

Myanmar junta launches pre-election census one day earlier than announced

Myanmar's military junta commenced a pre-election census on September 30, a day earlier than announced, despite the country grappling with severe flooding from a recent typhoon. The census is a preliminary step for the junta's planned 2025 elections, which critics argue are intended to legitimize the military's rule following the 2021 coup. The junta claims the census will ensure accurate voter lists, but opponents fear it could be used to recruit soldiers or extend military control. The survey, conducted amid widespread conflict and natural disasters, has been met with resistance, particularly from the Chin Brothers Alliance, which has prohibited census activities in areas they control. The aggressive pursuit of the census, reminiscent of past military insensitivity during crises, has raised concerns about the regime's priorities and intentions.

Myanmar’s census is a blunt counterinsurgency tool

Myanmar's military junta is conducting a nationwide census from October 1-15, which is perceived as a counterinsurgency tool rather than a genuine effort to prepare for elections. The census, involving 42,000 enumerators, is unlikely to cover areas beyond the junta's control, focusing instead on regions like the Mandalay-Yangon corridor. Critics argue that the 68-question survey aims to identify dissidents and armed opposition rather than create an accurate voter list. The exercise is seen as a means to intimidate the population, especially those linked to the Civil Disobedience Movement or armed resistance. Despite the junta's claims, the census is not supported by international bodies like the UN, and its execution amid natural disasters and conflict has been met with resistance and calls for a boycott from anti-junta groups. The situation places ordinary citizens in a difficult position, as cooperating with the census could make them targets for anti-junta forces, while non-cooperation risks legal repercussions.

Conflict

Myanmar Junta Continues to Bomb Civilians Targets in Lashio

The Myanmar military junta continues to target civilian areas in Lashio with bombings, intensifying the conflict in the region. Despite international condemnation, the junta's airstrikes have persisted, causing significant civilian casualties and destruction. The resistance forces, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, have been actively engaging the junta, capturing strategic locations such as Lashio, which marks a significant victory for the resistance. This ongoing conflict highlights the junta's reliance on military force to maintain control. At the same time, the resistance gains momentum and support in its efforts to challenge the junta's authority and push for a new political order in Myanmar.

Inside Myanmar with Jason Tower of the USIP

Jason Tower, the country director of the Burma Program at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), provides insights into Myanmar's ongoing civil war, human trafficking, and the rise of scam compounds across Southeast Asia. In an interview with The Diplomat, Tower discusses the fall of Myawaddy to anti-regime forces and the subsequent feelings of betrayal among rebel camps involving the Karen National Union and the local Border Force Guard. He highlights the Myanmar military's battlefield failures and China's growing involvement in the conflict, driven by its strategic interests, including an oil and gas pipeline. Tower also addresses the complex dynamics between the Arakan Army and the Rohingya in Rakhine State, where intense fighting continues as the military struggles to maintain control over its remaining territories.

Myanmar’s MNDAA Battles to Hold Prized City

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has captured the strategic city of Lashio, marking a significant defeat for the Myanmar military. Lashio, a key trade route to China, is the largest urban center to fall to an ethnic minority armed group since 1962. Despite the MNDAA's success, governing the city poses challenges due to its diverse population and the group's limited administrative experience. The city has been heavily impacted by ongoing military airstrikes, resulting in civilian casualties and widespread fear among residents. While the MNDAA attempts to restore normalcy and encourage residents to return, the situation remains tense, with continued low-level clashes and uncertainty about the future governance of Lashio. The MNDAA's ties to China add a complex layer to the conflict, influencing local dynamics and broader geopolitical considerations.

MNDAA Ceasefire Will Not Hold in Northern Myanmar: China Analyst

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is unlikely to maintain a ceasefire in northern Myanmar, according to a China analyst. The MNDAA, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), has been engaged in ongoing conflicts with the Myanmar military despite China's attempts to mediate and stabilize the region for its economic interests. The analyst suggests that China's influence over the MNDAA and other ethnic armed organizations is limited as these groups continue to pursue their territorial and political objectives. The situation remains complex, with the MNDAA's actions influenced by internal dynamics and external pressures from China, which seeks to protect its investments and maintain regional stability.

Myanmar Junta Invites Armed Groups to Stop Fighting, Start Talks

The Myanmar junta has extended an invitation to armed groups opposing its rule to cease hostilities and engage in peace talks following over three years of conflict since the military coup in 2021. This unexpected offer comes after significant military setbacks against ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy People's Defense Forces (PDFs). The junta's statement calls for these groups, labeled as "terrorist insurgents," to abandon their armed struggle and engage in political dialogue. The military, which seized power by ousting Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government, has faced widespread resistance and international condemnation for its brutal crackdown on dissent, resulting in thousands of civilian casualties and arrests. Despite pledging to hold new elections, the junta's actions have plunged Myanmar into a deepening human rights crisis, as highlighted by recent United Nations reports.

Airstrikes Trump Aid: Floods Expose Junta’s Attitude to Myanmar Populace

The Myanmar junta's response to recent natural disasters, such as floods, highlights its disregard for the welfare of the populace, prioritizing military operations over humanitarian needs. Despite the severe impact of floods and landslides, which have displaced hundreds of thousands and caused significant loss of life, the junta has been slow to request international aid and has historically obstructed humanitarian efforts. This attitude is further exemplified by the junta's continued airstrikes against civilian areas, demonstrating a focus on maintaining power through military might rather than addressing the urgent needs of its citizens. The junta's actions have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, drawing criticism from both domestic and international observers who see these priorities as indicative of the regime's oppressive and self-serving nature.

Myanmar Junta Airstrikes Follow Peace Talk Proposal

The Myanmar junta has launched airstrikes against ethnic armed groups shortly after proposing peace talks, highlighting the regime's contradictory approach to resolving the ongoing conflict. Despite the junta's call for dialogue, these military actions have intensified hostilities, undermining trust and further complicating the prospects for peace. The airstrikes have targeted areas controlled by ethnic armed organizations, which have been resisting the junta's rule since the 2021 coup. This aggressive military strategy, juxtaposed with the junta's peace overtures, reflects its struggle to maintain control and its reliance on force to suppress opposition, drawing criticism from both domestic and international observers. The situation remains volatile, with the junta's actions exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and diminishing hopes for a negotiated settlement.

Myanmar junta troops kill three civilians in Mandalay Region’s Myingyan Township

In Myingyan Township, Mandalay Region, Myanmar junta forces, including the pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia, killed three civilians during a raid on September 26, 2024. The victims were captured and executed by a column of around 100 regime troops, who accused them of being informants. The Pyu Saw Htee forces involved were led by Thida Yu Mon, a former leader of a group known for assassinating regime opponents. This incident is part of a broader pattern of violence in the region, where the junta has faced significant resistance and suffered heavy losses. Despite ongoing tensions, the junta continues to conduct airstrikes and raids in areas controlled by resistance forces, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and instability in the region.

Myanmar junta bombs Lashio again amid halting reconstruction efforts by MNDAA

In Lashio, northern Shan State, Myanmar's military junta conducted airstrikes that killed two civilians and injured six others, including a pregnant woman, as the Kokang ethnic armed group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), attempted to rebuild the city. The airstrikes targeted densely populated areas, causing significant damage to infrastructure, including a marketplace and a hotel. These attacks occurred shortly after the junta proposed peace talks with ethnic armed groups, a move seen as contradictory given the ongoing violence. The MNDAA, which took control of Lashio after capturing a key military command post, has been working to restore essential services like electricity, but the continued airstrikes have led many residents to flee, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region. The MNDAA has not publicly responded to the junta's peace offer, maintaining its distance from other anti-junta groups.

Myanmar guerrillas attack junta military headquarters in Mandalay

Pro-democracy insurgents in Myanmar, specifically the group Brave Warriors for Myanmar (BWM), launched a rocket attack on the Central Military Headquarters in Mandalay, marking the latest strike against the military's command structure. The attack carried out with 107 mm rockets, reportedly hit a building housing junta troops preparing for operations in northern Shan State, potentially causing injuries, though details remain unconfirmed. This assault is part of a broader campaign by pro-democracy People's Defense Forces (PDFs) and ethnic minority insurgents, who have been increasingly successful in capturing towns and challenging military control in various regions despite the junta's ability to conduct powerful airstrikes. The BWM, along with the Shadow Mandalay Group, has previously targeted the Mandalay base and other military sites, reflecting ongoing resistance efforts since the military coup in 2021. The junta, while condemning these "terrorist" attacks, continues to face significant challenges from these coordinated insurgent activities.

PDFs Capture Junta Base in Theinnaw Village, Tanintharyi Township

On September 25, 2024, approximately 150 junta troops abandoned the Theinnaw military base in Myeik District, following frequent attacks by pro-democracy forces, including drone strikes and artillery assaults, led by the People's Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG). The base's remote location, far from the Union Highway, made it difficult for the junta to reinforce, prompting the troops to retreat and attempt to join other junta forces along the highway. After the withdrawal, PDF fighters captured the base, seizing weapons left behind. The fleeing soldiers are now engaged in ongoing clashes with the PDF near Bankroop Village in Tanintharyi Township. The NUG's Tanintharyi Regional Military Command has issued safety guidelines for local residents due to the continued fighting. The Theinnaw base, established in 1980, was crucial for overseeing and supplying other junta bases in the strategic border area with Thailand.

Junta offensive underway to recapture towns in northern Shan state

Myanmar's junta is redeploying troops from southern to northern Shan State to reclaim towns lost to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Arakan Army, and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. This move follows the alliance's offensive, Operation 1027, which began last October and resulted in significant territorial gains for the ethnic armies. Despite a temporary ceasefire mediated by China, hostilities resumed in June, with the alliance capturing key locations, including Lashio city. In response, the junta has intensified airstrikes and artillery attacks, leading to a sharp increase in civilian casualties. The junta's actions are seen as an attempt to regain control and demonstrate resolve to China, amid pressure to curb the alliance's advances. The conflict has resulted in nearly 2,000 civilian deaths and thousands more injured since the military coup in February 2021.

Karen Armed Groups Meet to Discuss Reopening Asia Highway

The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and its allies have maintained control over the Myawaddy to Kawkareik section of the Asia Highway, keeping it closed due to ongoing conflicts with Myanmar's junta. This closure has forced the use of alternative, poorly maintained routes, causing significant traffic congestion. During a recent meeting attended by leaders from various Karen armed groups, including the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) and the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF), there were discussions about reopening the road, but no consensus was reached. Rumors suggest ongoing negotiations between Karen armed groups and Thai traders to address taxation and toll issues, which could lead to the road's reopening. The highway is crucial for trade between Thailand and Myanmar, and its closure has impacted economic activities. Previously, discussions between the Thai Ambassador to Myanmar and the junta-appointed Karen State Chief Minister focused on facilitating border trade and transportation, highlighting the road's importance for bilateral trade.

Myanmar Resistance Groups Kill Scores of Junta Soldiers in Sagaing Ambush

Anti-regime forces in Myanmar's Sagaing Region successfully ambushed a junta column of approximately 120 troops in Budalin Township, resulting in the deaths of around 50 soldiers and the capture of 40 others. The attack was carried out by a coalition of local People's Defense Force (PDF) groups and a resistance group known as 96 Soldiers, despite the junta receiving air support. This marks a significant defeat for the junta in southern Anyar, central Myanmar. The ambushed column was part of reinforcements sent by the Myanmar military's North Western Command following an attack on a police station in Kutaw Village by anti-regime groups. During their raids, the junta forces killed several civilians and resistance members. The resistance groups have released footage of the aftermath, showing captured soldiers and seized weapons, and have warned nearby civilians as some junta soldiers managed to escape. The incident highlights the ongoing conflict and the resistance's growing capability to challenge the junta's military operations.

AA launches new offensive to seize another Rakhine State town from Myanmar junta

The Arakan Army (AA) has launched a new offensive in Ann Township, Rakhine State, targeting the junta's Western Regional Military Command headquarters. The offensive began on September 26, focusing on Mae Taung Hill near Ann, with intense fighting reported as the junta attempts to defend its position. Despite heavy artillery exchanges and airstrikes by the junta, the AA has made significant advances, capturing weapons and causing junta casualties. The AA aims to take full control of Rakhine State, having already captured 10 of its 17 townships since ending a ceasefire with the regime last year. The conflict has resulted in civilian casualties and destruction, with the AA also intensifying efforts to seize the last junta outpost in Maungdaw Township. The ongoing battles highlight the AA's determination to expel junta forces and assert control over the region.

Rakhine ethnic armed group detains Khumi resistance members in northwest Myanmar

The Arakan Army (AA), a Rakhine ethnic armed group, has detained 14 Khumi men in Chin State's Paletwa Township, sparking condemnation from the Global Khumi Organisation (GKO). The arrests occurred on September 17 and 26, with the detainees suspected of having ties to the Chinland Defence Forces of Paletwa (CDF-Paletwa), an anti-junta resistance group. The AA, which has established its own administration in Paletwa after capturing it from the junta, is in conflict with the Chinland Council, backed by the CDF-Paletwa and the Chin National Front, over control of the area. The detentions have raised concerns about the AA's governance approach, as locals fear being targeted despite the absence of junta authorities. The GKO has reported that the detainees are being held in Mee Zar village, but the AA has not responded to inquiries about the arrests.

Conscription

Snatched from their beds, taken on the streets - the young men in Myanmar forced to fight the junta’s losing war

In Myanmar, the military junta has resorted to forcibly conscripting young men into its ranks following a series of military defeats and defections. This mandatory conscription, implemented for the first time this year, has instilled widespread fear, prompting many to flee or pay bribes to avoid being drafted. Since April, approximately 25,000 men have been taken to training camps, with 5,000 deployed to the frontlines. The junta's actions have exacerbated the country's humanitarian crisis, with basic services collapsing and poverty rates soaring. Families of conscripts, like Than Htun's, are left in anguish, uncertain of their loved ones' fates. The junta's recent call for political dialogue is viewed skeptically, seen as a tactic to appease international observers, particularly China while continuing its oppressive military campaign. The conscription disproportionately targets the poor, as wealthier individuals have fled abroad, further deepening the socio-economic divide in the country.

Junta sends reinforcements to Hlaingbwe Town, Karen State

In Hlaingbwe Town, Myanmar's junta has reinforced its Infantry Battalions 28, 338, and 339 with 420 conscripts, each battalion receiving two batches of 70 conscripts who have completed a three-month military training program. These conscripts are reportedly intended for security roles within the battalions, although they must serve for two years. The arrival of these reinforcements was marked by a parade involving 200 soldiers, which caused confusion and panic among locals. Additionally, the junta is training a hundred household administrators and teachers in Hlaingbwe for a nationwide population census scheduled for October, which is crucial for the junta's planned 2025 elections. This training includes individuals from downtown wards, with no village-level call-ups reported yet. The area is also home to the Karen National Union's Brigade Seven forces and the Karen Border Guard Force. However, they have not yet responded to the junta's census activities. The junta is also recruiting school teachers fluent in ethnic languages to serve as census enumerators nationwide.

Crime & Narcotics

Junta clashes with people’s militia in Muse town scam centre raids

In Muse Town, Shan State, Myanmar junta soldiers conducted raids on scam centers, leading to gun battles with People's Militias guarding these operations. On September 23, 2024, two raids targeted online fraud sites, with the first occurring in the Loisutaung Mountain area and Swamsaw Ward, where individuals were arrested and transported to Mingalar Muse. Subsequent raids near Mingalar Muse resulted in exchanges of fire with the People's Militia, despite the militia being under junta control, raising suspicions about the authenticity of the conflict. Locals speculate that the crackdown is a performance to appease China, given the junta's financial benefits from these scams. Despite past joint efforts with China to curb online fraud along the border, such operations have increased. Following the raids, the junta announced a three-day period of strict checks in Muse Town, causing concern among residents due to the lack of security and the presence of numerous junta-aligned militia groups. Although Muse Township has avoided open hostilities between the junta and ethnic armed organizations, the ongoing tensions and lack of law and order continue to instill fear among the local population.

Economy

As AA Verges On Control of Arakan State, MSMEs Ask: Is Optimism Too Optimistic?

The Arakan Army (AA) is on the verge of gaining control over Arakan State, prompting mixed reactions from local micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). While these businesses have endured significant challenges and losses over the years, there is cautious optimism about the potential establishment of an "Arakkha People's Government" that could bring stability and economic opportunities. However, some entrepreneurs question whether this optimism is realistic, given the region's complex political landscape and the ongoing conflict. The situation reflects a broader uncertainty about the future governance and economic prospects in Arakan State as the AA's influence grows.

Ethnic Issues

KNU: Junta Calls for Political Mediation Should Be Ignored

The Karen National Union (KNU) has dismissed the Myanmar junta's recent call for political mediation, urging the public and ethnic armed organizations to ignore it. The KNU argues that the junta's offer is insincere and merely a tactic to gain legitimacy and weaken the resistance. The group emphasizes that genuine dialogue cannot occur under the current oppressive conditions and calls for continued resistance against the military regime. The KNU's stance reflects widespread skepticism among opposition groups regarding the junta's intentions, as they believe the military is using the guise of mediation to consolidate power rather than pursue meaningful peace.

Foreign Affairs

Myanmar Junta Receives Six More Chinese Warplanes Amid Deadly Airstrikes on Civilians

The Myanmar military junta has acquired six additional Chinese warplanes, enhancing its air capabilities amid ongoing deadly airstrikes on civilians. This acquisition is part of a broader military relationship between Myanmar and China, a significant supplier of military hardware to the junta. The new aircraft are expected to bolster the junta's capacity to conduct air operations, which have been increasingly used against ethnic armed groups and civilian populations. The delivery of these warplanes comes at a time when the junta is facing international condemnation for its human rights abuses and military offensives, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

‘MNDAA Coerced by China’

China is reportedly coercing the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to adhere to a ceasefire amid ongoing conflicts in northern Myanmar. China, leveraging its influence, has pressured the MNDAA to halt hostilities, particularly as the Myanmar military seeks Chinese support to regain control over contested territories. Despite China's efforts to mediate and maintain stability for its economic interests, the MNDAA has continued its operations, challenging the junta's authority. This dynamic underscores China's strategic interests in Myanmar, balancing between supporting the junta and managing relationships with ethnic armed organizations to protect its investments and regional influence.

NUG Rejects Online Claim by Junta Supporters It Is on US Payroll

The National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar has firmly denied allegations made by junta supporters that it is receiving financial support from the United States. These claims surfaced online, suggesting that the NUG, which opposes the military junta, is on the U.S. payroll. The NUG dismissed these accusations as baseless and part of a disinformation campaign by the junta to undermine its legitimacy and credibility. The NUG reiterated its commitment to transparency and its reliance on donations from Myanmar citizens and the international community, emphasizing that it does not receive direct funding from any foreign government. This denial is part of the NUG's broader effort to counter misinformation and maintain its standing as a legitimate representative of the Myanmar people in the international arena.

General News

For Burmese journalist, an uneasy safety in Thailand

Thuzar, a journalist from Myanmar, fled to Mae Sot, Thailand, with her family after enduring imprisonment and torture for reporting on the military junta's crackdown on protests following the February 2021 coup. Despite the dangers, she continued her work until her arrest in September 2021, when she was sentenced to two years in prison under a law used to silence journalists. Her husband, Ye Ko Ko, also faced violence and arrest for his reporting. After Thuzar's release in January 2023, the family sought refuge in Thailand, where they were eventually granted political asylum and prepared to resettle in Germany. While relieved to be safe, they remain anxious about adapting to a new life in a foreign country, reflecting on the challenges they have faced and the uncertain future ahead.

Politics

MYANMAR MILITARY’S LATEST PEACE OVERTURES: Exit strategy of holding election may not be a soft-landing cushion for the junta

After more than three and a half years since the military coup, Myanmar's junta, known as the State Administration Council (SAC), unexpectedly called for peace with anti-junta groups, including ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs). The SAC justified its 2021 coup by alleging election fraud by the National League for Democracy (NLD) and announced plans for a population census and future elections. However, the language used in their statement was seen as condescending, suggesting a forced capitulation by the anti-junta forces, who have overwhelmingly rejected the peace overtures. Various ethnic and democratic groups, such as the Karenni Interim Executive Council and the Karen National Union, dismissed the SAC's proposal as insincere and a tactic to divide the opposition. They demand the military's withdrawal from politics, a new federal constitution, and transitional justice. Despite the SAC's attempts to present a political solution, the anti-junta forces remain firm in their resistance, viewing the junta's actions as a ploy to maintain power and appease international critics. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for changes leading to the proposed 2025 elections.

Myanmar Military Calls on Opponents to Enter Political Dialogue

The Myanmar military, through its State Administration Council (SAC), has called on its opponents, including ethnic armed organizations and "terrorist insurgent groups," to lay down their arms and engage in political dialogue. This marks the first such outreach since the military coup in February 2021. The SAC's statement emphasizes the need to resolve political issues through communication and invites these groups to participate in a planned election despite skepticism about the sincerity of this offer. The junta's call comes amid significant military setbacks and a deteriorating political situation, with many resistance groups, including the National Unity Government (NUG), rejecting the proposal. They view it as a tactical ploy rather than a genuine attempt at reconciliation, given the military's history of violence and its refusal to concede key demands such as its removal from politics and accountability for past atrocities. The planned election, set for 2025, is widely expected to be dismissed as illegitimate by both domestic and international observers.

The Iron Fist Behind Myanmar Junta’s Bogus Peace Offer

The Myanmar junta's recent offer to resolve political issues through political means is widely viewed as insincere and manipulative. The offer, which came from the junta's information team rather than the State Administration Council, includes demands for armed resistance groups to cease "terrorism," form political parties, and participate in elections under the 2008 Constitution. However, the junta's claims of electoral fraud as justification for the 2021 coup are disputed, as the 2020 election was validated by the Union Election Commission and observers. The regime's approach mirrors past failed attempts to force armed groups to disarm and integrate into the political system, which only exacerbated conflicts. The junta's ongoing military actions, including bombings in ethnic regions, further undermine trust in its intentions. The offer has been rejected by opposition groups, who argue that genuine peace requires unconditional talks and a new political framework beyond the 2008 Constitution, which is seen as illegitimate by many in Myanmar.