Issue 117 September 12th 2024

Introduction & Analysis

The following collection of open-source English-language news articles published during the past week covers significant events and issues related to Myanmar.

Conflict

Kachin Resistance Clashes with Myanmar Junta Troops in Hpakant

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and its allies engaged in intense clashes with Myanmar junta forces in Hpakant Township, Kachin State, on September 8 and 9, 2024. The fighting erupted when junta troops attempted to raid KIA positions near Seng Tawng village, resulting in casualties on both sides. Local sources reported that the Myanmar military deployed fighter jets and helicopters during the battle, while resistance forces used heavy and light weapons. The conflict has led to the displacement of hundreds of civilians, who have sought refuge in nearby villages and religious buildings. This recent escalation of violence in Hpakant, a region known for its lucrative jade mines, underscores the ongoing struggle between ethnic armed organizations and the military regime in Myanmar.

Myanmar Armed Group Seizes Naval Training Center in Rakhine State

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, has captured the Maung Shwe Lay Navy Base in Rakhine State, marking the first time a major Myanmar Navy facility has fallen to resistance forces. The base in Thandwe township was reportedly defended by over 1,200 soldiers but fell after intense fighting. This victory follows the AA's recent seizures of Thandwe town and Ngapali Beach. The AA now claims control over nine of Rakhine State's 17 townships and is pushing towards others. The loss significantly weakens the military junta's presence in western Myanmar, leaving only one naval base under their control in Rakhine State. This development further strengthens the AA's push for an independent ethnic Rakhine state amid ongoing conflict across Myanmar.

Myanmar military recaptures gas field from resistance forces in Magway Region

Myanmar's military junta has recaptured the Pu Htoe Lon oil and gas field in Magway Region's Gangaw Township from anti-junta forces. Resistance fighters had controlled the field for about two weeks before the junta launched a counteroffensive on September 5, using airstrikes and ground assaults. At least 100 infantry troops advanced from a nearby military facility to retake the field. While this marks a junta victory, resistance forces still control other oil and gas fields in the region. The recapture may indicate the junta prioritized regaining control over this particular field, possibly due to its strategic importance or economic value.

One killed, many injured as Myanmar air force bombs Lashio

Myanmar's military junta conducted airstrikes on Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State, for the third time in recent days. On September 10, junta aircraft dropped bombs on Ward 1 and near the Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters, killing one person and injuring many others. This appears to be a counterattack against the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which captured Lashio at the end of July. Similar airstrikes occurred on September 9 and August 30. The ongoing bombardment has caused widespread fear among residents and highlights the escalating conflict in northern Shan State between junta forces and anti-junta armed groups.

‘Peace mediator’ shot amid intense fighting near jade town of Hpakant

Intense fighting broke out near Hpakant, Kachin State's jade mining town, between Myanmar military forces and anti-junta fighters led by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). A local magnate attempting to broker ceasefire talks was reportedly shot during the clashes. The conflict began when over 100 junta soldiers entered Hseng Taung village, south of Hpakant, and stationed themselves at the Lucky Man Hotel. Anti-junta forces responded, leading to ongoing battles. This escalation comes as part of broader conflicts between the military junta and various ethnic armed groups across Myanmar, highlighting the continued instability in the region.

Junta commandeers civilian vehicles for reinforcement and logistics in Tanintharyi Region

Myanmar's military junta has begun commandeering civilian vehicles in Tanintharyi Region for use in reinforcements and logistics. Following recent fighting near Hton Htaw Village, junta troops have forcibly taken trucks and lorries from nearby 6-Mile Village to transport soldiers and supplies. The junta has also set up checkpoints in Tanintharyi Township, targeting and arresting young people returning from Thailand. This forced vehicle seizure has worsened economic hardships for local communities and affected their livelihoods. The actions come amid ongoing clashes between junta forces and a coalition led by the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in the region, which has seen increased use of high-explosive bombs by the military.

Myanmar resistance forces capture junta surveillance drone in Sagaing Region

Resistance forces in Sagaing Region's Ayadaw Township have captured a high-end Chinese-made surveillance drone belonging to Myanmar's military junta. The drone, manufactured by AheadX, crashed due to a technical malfunction, damaging its wings. Local residents initially mistook it for an explosive device before resistance fighters dismantled it, removing critical components like GPS. This capture comes as the junta has significantly increased its use of drones since seizing power in 2021. The incident highlights the ongoing technological aspects of the conflict between the junta and resistance forces, with drones playing an increasingly important role in military operations and intelligence gathering.

Myanmar rebels say they launched mortar attack on coup leader

Myanmar insurgents reportedly launched mortar attacks targeting junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing during his visit to a military base in Kayah State's capital, Loikaw. The Karenni Nationalities Defense Force claimed responsibility, firing two 120mm mortar bombs when Min Aung Hlaing was believed to be visiting. While the junta hasn't confirmed the attack, it responded with airstrikes against rebel positions. This incident comes amid ongoing conflict between Karenni guerrillas and junta forces in Loikaw. The junta also conducted airstrikes in other parts of Kayah State, killing one person and damaging buildings in Nan Mei Khon village. Since the 2021 coup, over 500 civilians have died in junta custody or due to shelling and airstrikes in Kayah State, according to rights groups.

Myanmar Junta Fleet Shells Villages as It Sails Up Irrawaddy River

A Myanmar military fleet sailing up the Irrawaddy River has been shelling villages along its route, causing widespread destruction and forcing civilians to flee. The fleet, consisting of several vessels, is reportedly moving through resistance-held areas in Sagaing Region, where anti-junta forces have been active. The shelling has damaged homes and infrastructure, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region. This aggressive military action is part of the junta's broader campaign to regain control over areas where resistance groups have gained ground since the 2021 coup. The attacks have intensified fears among local populations, who are already suffering from ongoing conflict and instability.

Brave Warriors for Myanmar launch mortar attack on Central Military Command

The Brave Warriors for Myanmar (BWM) launched a mortar attack on the Central Regional Military Command in Mandalay Palace, targeting Vice Senior General Soe Win. Ten 107mm mortar shells struck the command center and surrounding areas, injuring 18 people, including four critically wounded. Soe Win was reportedly evacuated to Naypyitaw by helicopter. The attack damaged nearby structures and a residential house. This strike comes as part of ongoing conflicts between revolutionary forces and the military junta in Mandalay Region. The BWM, known for targeting major military sites, has previously attacked several airbases and commands. The attack highlights the escalating violence in the region, with the junta responding by increasing its military presence and security measures in Mandalay City.

Conscription

Myanmar Junta Begins Training Fifth Batch of Military Draftees

Myanmar's military junta has begun training its fifth batch of military draftees amid ongoing conflict and resistance against the regime. The recruitment drive aims to bolster the junta's forces, which have faced challenges from ethnic armed groups and civilian militias since the 2021 coup. The new conscripts will undergo training at military bases across the country, likely preparing them for deployment against anti-junta forces. This move comes as the junta seeks to maintain control and quell opposition, despite international pressure and sanctions against its rule.

Myanmar junta begins conscripting men up to age 65 to protect towns against rebels

Myanmar's military junta has begun forcibly recruiting male civilians aged 35-65, including disabled individuals, to form local militias for defense against rebel groups. This move comes amid mounting battlefield losses since the 2021 coup, with rebel forces gaining ground across the country. The recruitment effort follows the formation of a People's Security and Counter-Terrorism Central Committee last month. Residents report forced conscription meetings in several regions, with those refusing service required to pay fines. Political analysts warn this strategy will lead to increased bloodshed rather than improved security. The recruitment drive coincides with recent military setbacks, including the capture of an artillery command center by ethnic Ta'ang rebels in Shan State.

Once more into the breach: Veterans redeployed

Veteran soldiers in Myanmar are being redeployed to fight against anti-junta forces, marking a shift in the military's strategy. Many veterans had retired after years of service, but recent conflicts have led to their reactivation. These experienced troops are being sent to combat zones across the country, particularly in Sagaing Region and Kayin State. Their deployment aims to bolster junta forces facing challenges from ethnic armed groups and resistance fighters. However, this move has raised concerns among civilians, who fear increased violence and potential human rights violations. The redeployment of veterans underscores the ongoing nature of Myanmar's civil war and the military's efforts to regain control over territories lost since the 2021 coup.

Myanmar junta intensifies forced military recruitment of civilians in Bago Region

Myanmar's military junta has intensified forced recruitment efforts in Bago Region, targeting male civilians aged 18-65 for military service and local militia groups. Monthly quotas have been imposed on townships, with administrators compiling lists of conscription candidates. Junta forces detain individuals at home, during village meetings, and even arrest travelers and pedestrians. Young men found traveling without proper documentation risk being conscripted. Those recruited are reportedly sent to training facilities in Shan State. This aggressive recruitment drive comes amid ongoing conflict between junta forces and resistance groups across Myanmar. The move aims to bolster the military's numbers but has sparked widespread fear among civilians facing potential forced conscription.

Crime & Narcotics

News of Myanmar Yatai exiting Shwe Kokko project is spreading

Myanmar Yatai International Holding Group Co. Ltd. has announced its withdrawal from the controversial Shwe Kokko New City Project, citing local and international pressure. All Yatai offices and businesses in Shwe Kokko town will be dissolved by September 15, with regional development works suspended indefinitely. Staff and businesses must leave by September 20 using company-arranged transportation. This move comes after years of criticism over the project's alleged ties to cross-border crime, human trafficking, and online scams. The withdrawal follows mounting pressure from China, India, and Thailand, as well as recent crackdowns on online scam gangs operating in the area controlled by the Karen National Army. The decision marks a significant shift in the project's fate, which had been planned to include various amenities like an international airport, hotels, casinos, and educational facilities.

Economy

Serge Pun resigns as chairman of First Myanmar Investment

Real estate tycoon Serge Pun (aka Thein Wai) has officially retired as Chairman of First Myanmar Investment (FMI) Company Limited and its subsidiaries, effective September 5, 2024. Two alternate directors also stepped down. Tun Tun will be reappointed as executive director and chief operating officer. Pun had been CEO since 2004 and recently resigned as executive chairman of Singapore-listed Yoma Strategic Holdings Limited in July. His resignation comes amid reports of potential legal issues, including alleged money laundering and illegal transfers, which were denied by his company. FMI operates in various sectors including finance, real estate, healthcare, banking, tourism, and construction, and was one of the first companies listed on the Yangon Stock Exchange in 2016.

Myanmar junta to reinstate fuel rationing, petrol station owners say

Myanmar's military junta plans to reinstate a fuel rationing system similar to one used under the previous military regime. Instead of ration books, the new system will utilize "smart cards" to limit fuel purchases. Initially, cards will be issued to taxi and commercial vehicle drivers. The Ministry of Energy, along with relevant committees and associations, will implement this quota-based allocation of petrol and diesel. This move comes as fuel prices at licensed stations are significantly lower than those on the black market. The reinstatement of rationing suggests the junta is seeking greater control over fuel distribution and consumption amid ongoing economic challenges and conflict in the country.

Myanmar nationals working abroad threatened with penalties for failing to remit 25 percent of their earnings

Myanmar's military junta has threatened penalties against nationals working abroad who fail to remit 25% of their earnings back to Myanmar. This policy aims to boost foreign currency reserves amid economic struggles. Workers abroad are required to open accounts with designated banks and transfer the stipulated percentage monthly. Failure to comply may result in fines, imprisonment, or loss of citizenship rights. Many migrant workers fear this policy will encourage illegal money transfers and further strain relations between Myanmar nationals abroad and the junta. The move comes as part of broader efforts by the regime to control foreign currency flows and stabilize the economy amid ongoing conflict and international sanctions.

Edible oil rationing starts in Yangon Region

Myanmar's military junta is introducing a new edible oil rationing system in Yangon Region starting September 1. Households will receive ration books for purchasing limited amounts of oil at designated shops. This replaces the previous queue-based system and aims to control distribution. The junta has set a new wholesale price of 6,490 kyats per viss (about 1.6 kg), leading to higher retail prices - up to 18,000 kyats per viss in Yangon and 20,000 kyats elsewhere. The government warns of action against overpricing and hoarding. This move comes as part of efforts to reduce foreign exchange spending on oil imports, which cost over $600 million annually. The rationing system reflects ongoing economic challenges and attempts by the junta to manage essential goods distribution amid the country's crisis.

CBM denies Thai banks suspend remittances with Myanmar banks

The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) has dismissed rumors that Thai banks would suspend remittances to Myanmar. Contrary to circulating misinformation, Kasikorn Bank and Siam Commercial Bank Myanmar are merely implementing Enhanced Due Diligence (EDD) measures as required by Thailand's Anti-Money Laundering Office. These measures aim to monitor high-risk customers and unusual transactions to prevent financial crimes. The CBM clarified that banking operations, including transactions, will continue normally unless suspicious activities are detected. Thai banks emphasized that no illegal financial transactions have been found in Myanmar's trading businesses, ensuring regular support for banking operations. This clarification comes amid ongoing economic challenges in Myanmar, reassuring the public about cross-border financial services.

Ethnic Issues

TNLA conducts house-to-house population census in Kyaukme citing rebuilding efforts

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is conducting a door-to-door census in Kyaukme Township, ostensibly for rebuilding efforts following recent clashes. However, locals suspect they may be tracking family details to recruit new troops. With fighting subsided, TNLA-appointed administrators now oversee local affairs, inquiring about damage but offering no clear assistance plans. The area suffered significant destruction, especially near former junta bases. Residents face rising prices and fear potential nighttime airstrikes. A recent bombing of a high school killed one person and injured two others. The TNLA-PDF coalition captured Kyaukme District on August 6, marking a shift in control from the military junta.

Two militia groups defect from junta to rejoin SSPP/SSA

Over 600 fighters from two militia groups that defected to the Myanmar junta in 2010 have rejoined the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA). The Seng Keaw group led by Sao Loi Mao and the Mong Khur 3rd Brigade returned with their arms on September 5, 2024. SSPP Chairman Sao Pang Fa welcomed them at a ceremony at the Wanhai headquarters. This reunion comes after the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army seized a nearby junta base in August. While the SSPP/SSA has declared opposition to the junta, they have largely avoided large-scale offensives against them so far, though occasional assistance to allied groups has been reported. This development strengthens the SSPP/SSA's position in Shan State amid ongoing conflict across Myanmar.

Foreign Affairs

NUG Defense Minister Pushes Back Against Chinese Intervention

In an interview with The Irrawaddy, Naing Htoo Aung, the Defense Minister of Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG), addressed concerns about Chinese intervention in Myanmar's internal affairs. He emphasized that the NUG respects China as a neighboring country but opposes any foreign interference that undermines Myanmar's sovereignty. Naing Htoo Aung criticized China's engagement with the military junta, stating that it contradicts the will of the Myanmar people and hinders the country's democratic aspirations. He called on China to reconsider its approach and support the Myanmar people's struggle for democracy. The minister also discussed the NUG's military strategy, highlighting the importance of coordination among resistance forces and the need for international support. He expressed confidence in the resistance movement's progress and reiterated the NUG's commitment to establishing a federal democratic union in Myanmar.

China’s Rising Influence Across Borders

China's influence is expanding across borders through various means, posing significant geopolitical challenges. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a major driver of this expansion, with infrastructure projects connecting China to neighboring countries. Economic ties are strengthening, with China becoming a dominant trading partner for many nations. Cultural influence is growing through media, education, and technology. Diplomatic efforts are also increasing, with China engaging in multilateral forums and forming alliances. However, this rise in influence often comes with concerns about debt traps, political interference, and erosion of sovereignty. As China continues to assert its global presence, smaller nations must carefully balance cooperation with caution to maintain their independence and avoid becoming overly dependent on Beijing.

Fears of China’s damming of the Salween River in Myanmar grow after UWSA takeover of northern Tangyan

The United Wa State Army's (UWSA) recent takeover of northern Tangyan township in Shan State has reignited concerns about China's long-planned Naung Pha dam on the Salween River. The UWSA's expansion puts it in control of the western bank of the Salween, opposite the site of the Mantong dam under construction. Both dams are joint ventures between China's Hydrochina Corporation and Myanmar military-linked companies, planned as Build Operate Transfer projects exporting power to China. Despite strong public opposition, construction of the Mantong dam has begun, raising fears about the Naung Pha dam's revival. Recent visits by Chinese businessmen to the Naung Pha site and ongoing preparations suggest progress on the project. Local communities have long opposed Salween River dams due to environmental and social concerns, including earthquake risks and flooding dangers. The development raises concerns about China's influence in Myanmar and the potential environmental impacts of large-scale hydroelectric projects.

CHINA PROPOSED PRESCRIBED TALKS: Peace negotiation process nipped in the bud as SAC declared the 3BHA terrorist organization

In recent weeks, Myanmar's political landscape has seen significant developments, marked by escalating tensions and international interventions. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) was warned by the Shweli City Security Committee to cease hostilities against the military junta, a move not officially endorsed by China despite their call for an end to the conflict. The National Unity Consultative Council criticized China for interfering in Myanmar's sovereignty. The junta labeled the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the TNLA, as terrorist organizations, rejecting China's peace negotiation efforts. Amidst these tensions, various ethnic armed organizations were urged by China to halt their offensives following a meeting between Chinese and Myanmar military leaders. The situation further deteriorated as towns controlled by TNLA and MNDAA faced airstrikes after being declared terrorist regions by the junta, which also launched a nationwide military offensive, signaling a rejection of China's proposed peace plans and indicating a move towards a more aggressive military stance as the country heads towards a planned 2025 election.

China holds whip hand in Myanmar’s civil war - Pearls and Irritations

In Myanmar, the military junta, weakened and controlling less than 40% of the countryside, faces opposition from a coalition of anti-junta groups and ethnic armed organizations, some of which engage in lucrative illegal activities. Amidst this fragmentation, China, with significant investments at risk, pressures the junta towards elections while backing it to avoid further chaos, despite the junta's strained relations with its backers due to its aggressive actions, including a violent crackdown on the Rohingya. The situation remains volatile, with the potential reconstitution of Myanmar under a federal model post-junta, supported by the National Unity Government but resisted by the military, which fears losing its grip on power.

Humanitarian

Letter From IDP Camp Yangon

This letter from Yangon provides a vivid snapshot of the changing demographics and social dynamics in Myanmar's largest city due to the ongoing conflict. The author describes a significant influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from various ethnic regions, including Chin, Kachin, Karenni, Rakhine, and Mon states, as well as central Myanmar. These newcomers are fleeing conflict zones or avoiding military conscription. The influx has led to increased rents, overcrowding, and challenges for both newcomers and long-term residents. The author notes the presence of military-affiliated families and the constant fear of raids and ID checks by junta forces. Despite these challenges, there are signs of adaptation and resilience, such as the emergence of ethnic food vendors and community support networks. The letter paints a picture of Yangon transforming into a de facto IDP camp, highlighting the far-reaching impacts of Myanmar's ongoing political crisis on urban life.