Issue 110 July 25th 2024

Introduction & Analysis

The following collection of open-source English-language news articles published during the past week covers significant events and issues related to Myanmar.

ASEAN

Myanmar Junta Generals Barred From ASEAN Meet as Civilian Deaths Exceed 5,400

Myanmar's military regime has been restricted to a non-political role at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers' meeting, a decision supported by the US State Department. This move comes amid escalating violence in Myanmar, where over 5,400 civilians have been killed since the coup, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The junta continues to face widespread armed resistance and has responded with indiscriminate airstrikes and shelling, leading to further civilian casualties. ASEAN's decision to exclude junta leaders from high-level meetings marks a continuation of measures taken since late 2021 to address the violence sparked by the coup. Despite international pressure and sanctions, the regime persists in its crackdowns, highlighting the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.

Conflict

Kokang army says it has captured Myanmar junta’s Northeastern Regional Military Command HQ

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic Kokang armed group, announced on Thursday that they had successfully seized control of the junta's Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in Lashio, marking a significant victory in their ongoing conflict. This achievement follows a series of strategic captures, including the junta's Light Infantry Battalions (LIB) 41 and 507, and a heavy artillery unit, LIB 68, which were crucial for the defense of the headquarters. The operation, which began last Friday and culminated in the surrender of over 300 junta troops on Sunday, signifies a major advancement for the MNDAA and its allies in their offensive against the regime, particularly after the collapse of a Chinese-brokered ceasefire. The capture of Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan State and an important administrative and trade hub, underscores the strategic importance of this victory for the MNDAA's revolution.

More than 300 Myanmar army troops surrender to Kokang fighters in northern Shan State capital - myanmar-now

On Sunday, three senior officers and approximately 300 junta soldiers surrendered to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an event announced two days later through a YouTube post by the MNDAA, which primarily consists of ethnically Kokang Chinese members. This surrender occurred in Lashio, northern Shan State, and involved soldiers previously under the command of coup leader Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. The MNDAA stated they are treating these captives humanely, adhering to international standards for prisoners of war. This development comes amid ongoing conflicts between the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the MNDAA, and the Myanmar military, part of a broader offensive named "Operation 1027." Despite a temporary ceasefire brokered by Beijing in January 2024, hostilities resumed in late June. The surrendering group included high-ranking officials, such as a lieutenant colonel and two majors, expressing their desire to align with the Brotherhood Alliance against the remaining forces loyal to Min Aung Hlaing. The MNDAA also claimed to have seized a significant arsenal from a nearby military training center during this surrender.

TNLA Closes in on Prized Myanmar Ruby Town - The Irrawaddy

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and its allies have reportedly captured two additional junta bases near Mogoke, a ruby mining hub in northern Mandalay Region, on Monday. This action included taking over the Pann Ma Hteik village base and another strategic location at Mogoke prison. During these raids, resistance forces claimed to have discovered 20 bodies of junta soldiers and seized various military equipment, including weapons, a drone, and ammunition. Concurrently, ongoing offensives by the TNLA and Mandalay People's Defense Force (PDF) continued in Nawnghkio Township, northern Shan State, resulting in civilian casualties from junta shelling. Clashes extended to Kyaukme Township, where TNLA troops engaged with junta forces at a toll gate and a monastery. These recent engagements are part of a broader conflict involving the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the TNLA and Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), in their resumed "Operation 1027" against regime forces. This operation has seen significant territorial gains by the alliance, including the surrender of numerous regime troops and the seizure of multiple junta bases and towns across northern Shan State and Mandalay Region.

MNDAA Extends Ceasefire Until End of July at China's Request - Burma News International

At China's request, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has extended its ceasefire in northern Shan State until the end of July, despite the junta's continued shelling attacks and air raids during the initial ceasefire period from July 14 to 18. These actions resulted in the death of 18 civilians and injured 19 others, according to a statement from the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), highlighting the ongoing conflict and humanitarian concerns in the region.

Heavy civilian casualties reported in Myanmar junta attack on market in northern Shan State - myanmar-now

On July 20, 2024, Myanmar's military junta launched an airstrike on a major market in the MNDAA-controlled town of Hsenwi in northern Shan State, resulting in significant civilian casualties. The attack on the Myoma market, located about 35 miles northeast of Lashio, killed at least five people and injured seven, with the death toll expected to rise as more bodies are recovered from the wreckage. This incident marks one of the deadliest in the area since the resumption of conflict, highlighting the ongoing violence against civilians in the region. The town has been under the control of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) since early January, following its capture as part of the Operation 1027 anti-regime offensive. The airstrike underscores the junta's continued use of force against civilian populations, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in areas under the control of ethnic armed groups involved in the resistance against the military regime.

MNDAA Clears Myanmar Junta Position at Entrance to Lashio Town

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured a junta military checkpoint near Lashio, the largest town in northern Shan State, breaking its unilateral ceasefire, prompting the military regime to respond with airstrikes. This action, part of the MNDAA's offensive launched on July 3, has led to significant territorial gains, including the seizure of several junta positions and the withdrawal of regime forces into Lashio town. Despite a temporary halt in operations for diplomatic reasons, the MNDAA and allied forces have continued their advance, targeting strategic locations and infrastructure, with the regime intensifying its defense through airstrikes and shelling, causing civilian casualties and damage to buildings. The ongoing conflict, marked by the resumption of Operation 1027 by the ethnic Brotherhood Alliance, underscores the complex dynamics of the anti-junta resistance, with various groups making territorial advances and facing counterattacks from the military, which has been reinforcing its positions in anticipation of further assaults. The situation reflects the broader struggle for control over key areas in northern Shan State, highlighting the challenges and implications of the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.

Myanmar Navy Deploys Warships in Mandalay as TNLA and Allies Advance

In response to advances by resistance forces, the Myanmar Navy has initiated patrols along the Irrawaddy River near Mandalay city, marking a significant escalation in the military's presence in the area. Residents reported the unprecedented deployment of warships and speedboats from Gaw Wein Jetty to Thayet Tapin Jetty, alongside increased checks on river vessels and restrictions on boat movements, particularly those heading north towards Mogoke. This comes as the regime tightens security in Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city, with enhanced vehicle checks, troop reinforcements, and patrols, indicating heightened concerns over the spread of anti-regime operations, including the resumption of Operation 1027 by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allies. The measures, which include banning vessels from docking at certain jetties and requiring boat owners to report arrivals from conflict zones, reflect the junta's efforts to secure strategic waterways and control the flow of goods and information amidst escalating conflict. The reinforcement around Mandalay, a key urban center, underscores the regime's defensive strategy against the expanding resistance, highlighting the critical role of the Irrawaddy River in the ongoing civil war and the junta's attempts to maintain control over vital transportation and trade routes.

TNLA: Five Myanmar Junta Positions Seized Around Ruby Town

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and its allies have reportedly captured five additional junta positions in Mogoke, a ruby town in eastern Mandalay Region, along with significant arms and ammunition, amidst ongoing clashes that have resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of nine individuals and injuries to ten others. This development follows the TNLA's seizure of western Mogoke earlier in July and indicates an escalation in the conflict, with fighting extending to Kyaukme Township in northern Shan State and involving junta Light Infantry battalions. The TNLA has accused the regime of employing drones and airstrikes in areas like Nawnghkio and Mongmit townships, highlighting the intensifying violence. Despite a temporary ceasefire by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) during a Chinese Communist Party meeting, the resumption of Operation 1027 by the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the TNLA and MNDAA, has led to the seizure of numerous junta bases, towns, and strategic routes, with the Mandalay People's Defense Force advancing towards Mandalay city. These actions underscore the expanding resistance against the military regime, which has responded with airstrikes and drone attacks, reflecting the complex and escalating nature of the conflict across Myanmar. The ongoing operations by the Brotherhood Alliance and its allies, despite a previous ceasefire, signal a determined effort to challenge the junta's control over key areas, including the strategically important Mogoke and the broader northern Shan State, emphasizing the fluid and volatile situation on the ground.

Myanmar anti-junta activists accused of assassination plot die in custody, group says

Two members of the Yangon-based Dark Shadow urban guerrilla group, accused of plotting to assassinate Myanmar's junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, died from torture during interrogation, according to a spokesperson for the group. The arrests, which included the seizure of rockets and launchers near a bridge opening ceremony attended by Min Aung Hlaing, led to the detention of several individuals linked to the plot, with four identified as Dark Shadow members. Two of these members, Shein Myint Mo Aung and Zaw Gyi, reportedly died at the Ba Yint Naung Military Interrogation Center, while the whereabouts of two others remain unknown. The junta-controlled media reported the arrests and the seizure of additional rockets, indicating a broader crackdown on anti-junta activities. This incident highlights the ongoing turmoil in Myanmar since the military coup in 2021, which has seen thousands of civilians killed and many young democracy supporters turning to armed resistance. The situation underscores the brutal tactics employed by the regime against perceived threats, with allegations of torture and the disappearance of detainees raising concerns about human rights abuses amidst the broader conflict.

Kyaukme Clashes Continue Despite TNLA Ceasefire Announcement

Despite the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) declaring a unilateral ceasefire in Kyaukme Township, Shan State, clashes with junta forces have persisted, with TNLA reporting continued fighting around junta bases and a tragic incident where an elderly woman was killed and three others injured by artillery fire. The ceasefire, from July 15 to 18, did not halt the junta's offensive, which included drone strikes and shelling despite no active engagement from TNLA, indicating the regime's disregard for the ceasefire. This ongoing conflict is part of broader offensives by TNLA and the People's Defense Force (PDF) coalition against junta bases across Shan State, resulting in significant territorial gains and highlighting the junta's aggressive military tactics, including airstrikes and artillery bombardments in defiance of the ceasefire. The situation reflects the complex dynamics of the conflict, where ceasefires are declared but not honored, leading to civilian casualties and the continuation of hostilities, underscoring the challenges of achieving peace amidst the military's ongoing operations against resistance forces.

Myanmar military bombs Laukkai, killing two civilians near China border - myanmar-now

On July 24, 2024, a junta airstrike on Laukkai, a town in northern Shan State controlled by the Myanmar National Democratic Army (MNDAA), resulted in the deaths of two civilians and injured several others. The attack occurred shortly after midnight, targeting Ward 2, a residential area with homes and hotels. The MNDAA reported that one bomb exploded near a hotel, causing significant casualties, including Chinese nationals and local residents. This incident marks the second airstrike on Laukkai this month, amidst ongoing conflicts and a temporary ceasefire announcement by the MNDAA and its ally, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain high due to continued military assaults, including a recent attack on a market in Hsenwi that killed civilians. The MNDAA has criticized the junta for targeting residential areas, highlighting the ongoing instability and safety concerns in the region.

‘We just want peace’: Lashio under siege

As the conflict between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups intensifies in Lashio, most residents have fled, leaving behind a town grappling with the realities of war. U Soe, a construction worker turned bunker builder, and his team have been digging bomb shelters for those few remaining, a stark contrast to their pre-conflict construction projects. The escalation began with Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, leading to a surge in demand for bunkers as fear gripped the town. Despite a temporary ceasefire brokered by China, renewed fighting has placed Lashio in a precarious position, with the military struggling to maintain control amidst significant losses. The assault on Lashio, while seen by some as a strategic blow against the military regime, has displaced tens of thousands and disrupted lives, with no clear welcome for the ethnic armed groups leading the charge due to their lack of historical presence in the town and reports of human rights abuses. The situation has forced residents to navigate dangerous escape routes, facing challenges such as destroyed infrastructure and escalating rental prices in safer areas. Amidst the chaos, social services have collapsed, leaving those unable to flee in a dire situation, highlighting the complex and devastating impact of the conflict on Lashio and its people.

NORTHERN SHAN STATE WAR THEATER : China’s directive ignored by TNLA and MNDAA

Amidst the ongoing conflict in northern Shan State, particularly around Lashio, China has exerted pressure on the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to implement an immediate unilateral ceasefire. This comes after China brokered a temporary ceasefire in January 2024, following the first phase of Operation 1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), which saw significant territorial gains against the military junta. Despite this intervention, the second phase of Operation 1027 resumed in July 2024, leading to intensified fighting around Lashio. The MNDAA declared a unilateral ceasefire in mid-July, extending it until the end of the month, but the TNLA has shown resistance to halting operations, criticizing China's involvement. Meanwhile, the junta continues airstrikes and bombardments, disregarding ceasefire agreements. China's actions, including closing border gates and cutting electricity to Laukkai, have not deterred the EAOs from escalating their offensive. The situation remains volatile, with the junta reinforcing its positions and engaging in negotiations with other ethnic armed organizations for support while China struggles to control the conflict through its proxies.

Myanmar Junta Troops Defending Ngapali Trapped as AA Cuts Off Naval Base - The Irrawaddy

In a significant strategic move, the Arakan Army (AA) has successfully isolated a crucial junta naval base in Thandwe Township, Rakhine State, disrupting the junta's reinforcement routes from Ayeyarwady Region. This action follows the AA's capture of key locations in Thandwe, including the town, prison, airport, and military bases, leaving junta forces concentrated in Jeiktaw Ward, near the renowned Ngapali Beach. The AA's assault on the Kwin Wyne naval base, employing rockets and drones, has effectively trapped junta troops in Jeiktaw, highlighting the strategic importance of controlling access to the area. Amidst reports of junta casualties and the destruction of infrastructure to hinder AA advances, the situation underscores the ongoing conflict in Rakhine State, where the AA aims to consolidate control over remaining junta-held townships amidst a broader struggle against Myanmar's military regime.

Crime & Narcotics

JFM: Malaysia must investigate its citizens’ involvement in Myanmar scam parks

Advocacy group Justice for Myanmar is urging Malaysia to investigate its citizens involved in cyber scams operating in Myanmar, highlighting connections between Malaysian figures and notorious scam operations. Specifically, former Malaysian deputy minister Mashitah Ibrahim and her husband Abdul Shakor bin Abu Bakar are implicated as partners in the Dongmei cyber scam park alongside ex-14K Triad boss Wan Kuok-koi, known as Broken Tooth. Despite potential criminal ties, these individuals have reportedly maintained access to senior Malaysian politicians and police. The Dongmei Park, established by Wan Kuok-koi, Mashitah Ibrahim, Abdul Shakor, and other Malaysians, has operated under the Hong Kong-registered Dongmei Group, which Abdul Shakor directs and has been sanctioned by the USA for raising funds from Malaysian investors for the scam park in Myanmar. Recent revelations also link Mashitah Ibrahim and Abdul Shakor’s family to Myanmar tycoons and cryptocurrency ventures, including the launch of Meta X DAO, attended by their son Muhammad Wafi, indicating a complex network of illicit activities spanning across Southeast Asia.

Ayeyarwady vice: Law and disorder in the Delta

Junior police officer Ko Myat Ko, fearing the escalating conflict in Myanmar, regrets transferring from the safety of Nay Pyi Taw to his hometown in Ayeyarwady Region, a decision influenced by his mentor and the perceived stability of the area. Despite Ayeyarwady's relative calm compared to other conflict-ridden regions, the fear of sudden transfers to dangerous zones looms over police officers, leading some to bribe their way out of such assignments or avoid promotions to prevent relocation. The military's losses and conscription efforts have strained the police force, with officers being moved around like "pawns on a chessboard," facing the dilemma of staying in safer areas or risking transfers to conflict zones. This instability has led to increased corruption, with officers taking bribes from illicit businesses to supplement their meager salaries, a practice exacerbated by economic hardship post-coup. Amidst this, some officers opt to defect to the resistance or join the police force to avoid military conscription, though their motivations are often questioned. The regime's relaxation of recruitment standards to replenish ranks has also been noted, with lower educational requirements and continuous training programs aimed at attracting new recruits. This environment of fear, corruption, and uncertainty within the police force reflects the broader turmoil in Myanmar, where officers navigate a landscape of bribery, potential transfers, and the moral implications of their service under the junta, highlighting the complex choices faced by those in law enforcement amidst the ongoing civil war.

Economy

Myanmar's Junta Arrests Business Owners Amid Rising Inflation - Evrim Ağacı

Amidst rising inflation and a depreciating currency, Myanmar's military junta has intensified its economic control by arresting business owners who attempt to increase wages for their employees. This harsh measure, exemplified by the case of U Pyae Phyo Zaw, a cellphone shop owner in Mandalay who faced charges for announcing wage hikes, highlights the regime's prioritization of suppressing dissent over alleviating economic hardship. At least ten shop owners have been targeted for similar actions, with the military justifying these arrests as necessary to maintain public order. This crackdown reflects the junta's broader strategy of using legal and extralegal means to quell any form of opposition, exacerbating the economic crisis that has seen inflation rates soar and the value of the kyat plummet. The situation underscores the deepening economic despair among ordinary citizens, who face not only financial struggles but also the threat of imprisonment for acts deemed defiant by the regime.

Myanmar’s Trade Takes a Turn for the Worse - fulcrum.sg

Over three years of conflict following Myanmar's 2021 coup have severely impacted the country's economy, with the military regime's attempts to manage trade through extensive regulations and forex controls failing to prevent a significant downturn. Despite a temporary increase in trade in 2022, driven by unsustainable practices like resource extraction and currency depreciation, the long-term effects of these policies, combined with ongoing conflict and a conscription law, indicate a looming economic decline that the regime cannot reverse. Pre-coup, Myanmar's trade doubled to $46 billion in 2020, but post-coup disruptions initially led to a sharp decrease, recovering slightly in late 2021. However, 2023 saw a decline in trade, attributed to conflicts and policy impacts, with exports falling by an estimated $4 billion and imports decreasing by about $1 billion, reflecting broader global trends and supply-side issues, including brand withdrawals affecting garment exports. The regime's unreliable trade data, partly due to traders undervaluing goods to circumvent unfavorable exchange rates and taxes, masks deeper issues like reduced investment product imports crucial for productivity, signaling a shift towards self-sufficiency that may hinder growth. The military's policies and conflicts have exacerbated economic challenges, leading to a projected further downturn in 2024, impacting border trade and labor availability. Real wages fell significantly, benefiting few, while imports shifted away from productivity-enhancing goods towards less beneficial sectors, indicating a structural shift unlikely to foster sustainable growth. The military's inability to address these issues, alongside capital flight and declining confidence, suggests prolonged stagnation, affecting livelihoods and incomes negatively.

Minors make up for labor shortage caused by Myanmar’s conflict, draft

Myanmar's military draft, enacted as part of the junta's efforts to bolster its forces amid significant losses to ethnic armies and rebel militias since the 2021 coup, has exacerbated a worker shortage by recruiting thousands of young men and women, leading to a rise in child labor as a means for families to avoid conscription. This situation, highlighted by the International Labor Organization (ILO), indicates an increase in child labor levels partly driven by parents preferring their children to work rather than be drafted, with child labor rates in conflict-affected areas being significantly higher than global averages. Despite the lack of exact figures, labor rights groups confirm an uptick in child labor across various sectors due to the absence of drafted or fleeing workers. Children, particularly vulnerable in a country with limited worker protections, face exploitation, including unpaid overtime and dismissals for refusing extra hours, with many too afraid to report abuses. The economic mismanagement and political instability under the junta have pushed families into poverty, forcing children into work to support their households, often in hazardous conditions and without proper compensation. This trend, exacerbated by the draft, reflects a broader crisis where education and rights are sacrificed for survival, with instances of children working in factories, agriculture, and other sectors under false identities to evade age restrictions. The situation underscores the junta's impact on Myanmar's socio-economic fabric, with 75% of the population living in poverty and child labor becoming a desperate measure for families amidst the ongoing conflict and economic downturn, highlighting the urgent need for international attention and action to protect children's rights and well-being.

‘No future here’: Youth exodus leads to labour shortage

The military junta's decision to forcibly conscript young men into the military has led to a mass exodus of Myanmar's youth, including Ko Zin Khant, who fled to Thailand to avoid service, highlighting the economic and social impacts of the conscription law enacted amidst battlefield losses. This move has exacerbated labor shortages, particularly affecting industries like printing, construction, and garment manufacturing, as thousands of workers, predominantly young men, leave their jobs, leading to a rise in child labor and increased workloads for remaining employees. The economic downturn, exacerbated by the coup and conscription, has pushed businesses to desperate measures, including hiring underage workers and raising wages, but the overall effect is a strained workforce and compromised productivity. The garment industry, a significant employer, faces severe labor shortages, with rumors of forced military recruitment spreading fear among workers, leading to a further exodus, especially from working-class areas. Despite some sectors benefiting from the economic instability, the broader impact is a struggling economy, with construction projects halted and garment factories unable to fulfill orders due to a lack of skilled labor. The situation has forced families into difficult choices, such as pulling children out of school to work, and has prompted women to consider fleeing the country as well, fearing potential conscription. This crisis underscores the junta's disruptive policies on Myanmar's economy and society, with increased costs of living abroad and the challenges of finding legal employment overseas, illustrating the dire consequences of the military's actions on the country's workforce and the future prospects of its youth.

Eight Myanmar banks authorised to operate rupee-kyat trade settlement mechanism

On July 21, 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) authorized eight Myanmar banks to operate a rupee-kyat trade settlement mechanism, simplifying trade between India and Myanmar by allowing direct currency exchanges without the need for US Dollar conversions. This development, which also saw the authorization of India’s Punjab National Bank (PNB) for the mechanism, facilitates easier transactions for importers and exporters by enabling payments directly in Myanmar Kyats and Indian Rupees through Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVAs). The first transaction under this new system was conducted by PNB's Yangon office on July 2, 2024, for pulses imported from India. Despite Myanmar's request for 11 banks, including the state-owned Myanmar Economic Bank, to be authorized, the RBI approved only eight, aiming to reduce Myanmar's reliance on USD amidst sanctions and procurement difficulties. This move is expected to boost bilateral trade and address the ongoing demand-supply imbalance of USD in Myanmar.

Education

Myanmar's civil war has seen rise in attacks on schools, say researchers - Business Standard

The intensification of Myanmar's civil war has led to a significant increase in destructive attacks on schools, with monitoring group Myanmar Witness reporting 174 incidents since the military seized power in 2021, exacerbating the strain on the country's already fractured education system and impacting millions of children. These attacks, alongside the broader conflict, have forced children from their homes, disrupted vaccinations, and led to inadequate nutrition, with other groups suggesting even higher numbers of assaults on educational institutions. The military's control over less than half of the country and the rise in armed resistance have contributed to this crisis, with education becoming a casualty of the war. Student enrollment plummeted by 80% from 2020 to 2022, leaving about half of Myanmar's children out of school by mid-2022. The destruction of schools and the military's use of educational facilities for strategic purposes have further undermined the education sector, with airstrikes and the involvement of young people in the resistance complicating the delivery of education. The conflict's impact on schools not only threatens the immediate well-being of children but also risks shaping the next generation's worldview towards factionalism and war, rather than hope and reason, as highlighted by Matt Lawrence of Myanmar Witness. This situation underscores the deepening humanitarian crisis, with over 3 million people displaced and a significant portion of children living in poverty, emphasizing the urgent need to protect education amidst the ongoing violence.

Ethnic Issues

Frictions in Northern Shan State reach the Negotiation Table

Territorial disputes among allied resistance forces in Myanmar's northern Shan State, including the Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA), Kachin Independence Organization/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA), and Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party/Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNTJP/MNDAA), have escalated despite their successful military campaign against the junta, highlighting the complexities of coalition warfare. These frictions, emerging from the swift successes of "Operation 1027" launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, underscore the challenges of managing territorial control and administrative responsibilities post-victory. Incidents range from clashes over captured towns to disagreements on local governance and military operations, reflecting deeper issues of autonomy and cooperation among groups with differing objectives beyond overthrowing the military regime. Despite reassurances from leaders about resolving these conflicts peacefully, the situation underscores the intricate dynamics within the anti-junta alliance, complicated by the involvement of multiple ethnic armed organizations (EROs) each pursuing varied political goals. The Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) has played a pivotal role in mediating disputes, emphasizing the need for cautious negotiation and collaboration to prevent escalation. While the resistance aims to dismantle junta camps nationwide, the expansion of conflict areas raises concerns over territorial autonomy claims, necessitating continued efforts to address inter-allied tensions. The ongoing negotiations and interventions, such as those involving school closures and administrative directives, illustrate the delicate balance between unity against the common enemy and internal rivalries, suggesting that while progress has been made in some areas, sustained dialogue and compromise are essential to maintain cohesion among allies and focus on the broader goal of establishing a federal democratic union.

Chinland Government calls on AA to stop interfering in Chin affairs

The Chinland Government, established by the Chinland Council and comprising representatives from various Chin organizations, has called upon the Arakan Army (AA) to cease its interference in the political and military affairs of the Chin people and Chin State. This plea comes amid escalating tensions and conflicts between the Chinland Government-allied forces and those aligned with the Chin Brotherhood and the AA, particularly highlighted by recent clashes in Matupi Township over control of junta bases. Despite these internal struggles, the Chinland Government reaffirms its commitment to unity within Chin State and its opposition to any actions that could jeopardize this unity. It emphasizes its readiness to form alliances with any entity sharing its objective of overthrowing the junta, including international bodies like the United Nations, while simultaneously expressing support for the Rakhine people's struggle led by the AA. The situation underscores the complex dynamics within the broader movement against Myanmar's military regime, with internal disputes among resistance groups complicating efforts to present a united front against the junta.

General News

Mae Sot: An escape route from Myanmar

Mae Sot, a Thai border town facing Myanmar's Myawaddy, has become a significant hub since the military junta took over Myanmar in February 2021. Traditionally a crossing point for Myanmar citizens seeking work in Thailand, Mae Sot saw an influx of arrivals after the coup, including politicians and citizens fleeing military rule. The town serves as a vital escape route and refuge, with bridges connecting Myawaddy offering a southern exit from Myanmar, though travel times have increased due to conflict and checkpoints. Amidst expanding resistance against the junta, Mae Sot has also become a base for anti-government forces, including the Three Brotherhood Alliance and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), challenging the military government across Myanmar. Despite divisions among these groups based on ethnicity, religion, and ideology, they share a common goal of resisting the military. Meanwhile, Mae Sot continues to provide sanctuary for Myanmar refugees, contributing to its economy and highlighting the ongoing impact of the conflict on regional stability and migration patterns.

Prominent Baptist pastor released from Myanmar jail - UPI News

Dr. Hkalam Samson, a prominent Baptist pastor and advocate for religious freedom in Myanmar, was released from prison on July 23, 2024, after being jailed since late 2022 by the military junta for his religious activities. Initially arrested on December 4, 2022, Samson faced charges related to his participation in religious gatherings and advocacy for religious freedom. He was sentenced to six years in prison in April 2023 following a trial criticized for lacking legal representation and being based on manufactured charges. Although temporarily released in April 2023 among 3,302 other prisoners, he was rearrested the next day. His release was confirmed by the Peace-Talk Creation Group. While the United States welcomed his release, it reiterated calls for the military regime to end its repression of religious actors and communities in Myanmar.

Military

Those Calling for a Negotiated Solution in Myanmar Should Read Putin’s Playbook

Advocates for a negotiated solution to Myanmar's post-coup crisis often overlook two critical aspects of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing's survival strategy. Firstly, Min Aung Hlaing relies on an authoritarian alliance, including Russia, China, India, Iran, and North Korea, to bolster his regime, offering incentives to these nations to secure their support and strategic interests in Myanmar, thereby enabling him to disregard international opposition. He actively encourages these countries to increase or establish their presence in Myanmar, leveraging geopolitical alliances against Western democracies and ASEAN's caution to avoid proxy conflicts. Secondly, Min Aung Hlaing employs a strategy of total destruction, targeting civilians and infrastructure, mirroring tactics seen in conflicts like Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine, where civilian suffering is a deliberate military objective rather than collateral damage. This approach, rooted in the junta's Spartan-like detachment from society and focus on controlling natural resources over people, underpins a mindset that views negotiations merely as a continuation of warfare by other means. His strategy aligns with authoritarian regimes' methods of suppressing resistance through economic and social devastation, aiming to burden opponents with displaced populations deprived of essentials. This perspective contrasts sharply with concerns about fragmentation, highlighting a fundamental misunderstanding of the junta's military tactics and its divergence from conventional defense forces. Min Aung Hlaing's reliance on external authoritarian support and a scorched-earth policy underscores the complexity of resolving Myanmar's crisis through negotiation alone, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of his regime's strategic calculations and the geopolitical dynamics at play.

Politics

As president, Min Aung Hlaing will only prolong Myanmar’s misery - myanmar-now

Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of Myanmar's military coup in 2021, has declared himself the country's president, a move that is expected to prolong the nation's ongoing misery rather than alleviate it. Since the coup, Myanmar has been embroiled in a devastating civil war characterized by widespread civilian suffering due to indiscriminate airstrikes and heavy artillery fire by the junta. Min Aung Hlaing's self-appointment as president is seen as a desperate attempt to legitimize his rule amidst international condemnation and internal resistance. His leadership has been marked by brutal suppression of dissent, economic decline, and a humanitarian crisis, making him one of the world's most reviled despots. Despite the dire situation, Min Aung Hlaing continues his war on Myanmar's people, indicating that the country's suffering under his rule is far from over.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing becomes Myanmar’s acting president

Myanmar's military chief Min Aung Hlaing has assumed the role of acting president, following state media reports that the current incumbent, Myint Swe, is receiving medical treatment for health issues. This move transfers responsibility for national defense and security matters from Myint Swe to Min Aung Hlaing, who already leads the State Administration Council, the military junta governing Myanmar since the 2021 coup. The announcement precedes a decision by the National Defense and Security Council on whether to extend the state of emergency beyond July 31, a decision that requires the acting president's approval. Myint Swe, previously a figurehead who signed junta decrees lending legitimacy to military rule, has been reported to suffer from neurological disorders affecting his daily activities. Critics, including Nay Phone Latt from the shadow National Unity Government, view Min Aung Hlaing's self-appointment as another display of his disregard for democratic norms and moral conscience, further consolidating his power amidst ongoing political turmoil.

Myanmar junta leader assumes presidential powers as president takes ‘sick leave,’ state media reports

General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of Myanmar's military junta, has assumed the role of interim president following the medical leave of figurehead leader Myint Swe, who is reported to be suffering from health issues including psychomotor retardation and malnutrition, according to state media. This move was announced as the junta council, chaired by Hlaing, took over responsibilities from Swe, who had been serving as acting president since the February 2021 coup that ousted civilian leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi and installed military loyalists. Despite initial promises of elections within two years, the junta has extended emergency rule and military control, now facing significant challenges, including a devastating civil war against local militias and pro-democracy groups, leading to territorial losses and troop casualties. The situation has escalated humanitarian concerns, with UN reports indicating a critical need for assistance for millions due to conflict-driven displacement, food insecurity, and human rights abuses. Amidst these crises, the junta's aerial attacks on civilians have intensified, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis, with the UN highlighting severe underfunding of aid efforts and warning of dire consequences for those in need.

Telecommunications

Myanmar junta restricts more mobile apps, residents say - Radio Free Asia

Residents in Myanmar have reported that access to certain Google apps and the encrypted messaging app Signal appears to be blocked within the country, necessitating the use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to bypass these restrictions. Although the military junta, which seized power in February 2021, has not officially announced the blocking of these apps, it has previously banned various messaging, social media platforms, and VPN services. Signal, known for its secure communication features, has gained popularity among users seeking privacy and security in their communications. Amidst ongoing conflicts and internet restrictions, including random searches for VPN usage and arrests related to social media activity supporting the opposition, residents continue to rely on VPNs to access critical internet services. Despite the junta's efforts to suppress freedom of expression and control information flow, technology experts suggest that there are still ways around these blocks, highlighting the ongoing struggle for digital freedoms in Myanmar.